This year’s Government Work Report calls for smaller-than-expected fiscal consolidation, gradual monetary policy normalization, while making innovation and self-reliance priorities

China’s top legislature will likely push for further reform and opening and highlight technology innovation and greener development as future goals

First quarter GDP growth will exceed 18% as migrant workers who never went home for the Lunar New Year get back on the job faster than usual

The deleveraging in 2021 will not be as sweeping as previously and should have limited impact on growth

Strong global recovery should help push export growth to 10% in 2021

The country could contribute at least 30% of global growth in the next decade

UBS’s chief China economist predicts a global recovery will help push Chinese export growth to 10% next year

Global demand may soften in the near term but is expected to recover strongly in 2021

UBS forecast assumes exports and domestic consumer spending will lead recovery as vaccines vanquish the pandemic

Any new agreement is unlikely to be reached until late 2021, while a reduction or removal of existing U.S. tariffs is not expected

If a Biden administration is elected, the chances are small that it will unwind some of Washington’s China tariffs

In light of decoupling pressures and tech restrictions, China may allocate more resources to fundamental research and technology bottlenecks

The country’s economic master plan for 2021 to 2025 will likely continue to focus on environmental protection and controlling risks in the financial and property sectors, writes UBS’s chief China economist

After fast work resumption, key drivers have been protective equipment and medical supplies to fight Covid-19

Increased pressure to decouple will likely accelerate ongoing supply chain shifts, even as China continues to open its markets

Number of people with an average annual disposable income of $5,000 or more is expected to increase from 130 million in 2009 to 900 million in 2030

While many may worry about the long-term implications of such a rapid debt increase, risks remain manageable

Additional fiscal spending, special bonds, monetary easing and more infrastructure are probably on the way, but all in moderation

There is now greater risk that the trade war will escalate, and it is likely China will implement more policies to juice its economy

Domestic support for accelerated economic reform means it is likely to continue, boosting domestic confidence and efficiency