Wang Tao: China May Set Ambitious GDP Growth Target With More Policy Support

As highlighted in the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) and highlighted by the senior leadership recently, we expect the upcoming National People’s Congress (NPC) meeting starting from March 5 to reiterate the priority of stabilizing growth and call for more policy support to boost final demand and anchor expectations.

Despite the lingering downward pressures on growth, we think the government may still set an ambitious GDP growth target at “above 5%” or “5-5.5%”, and emphasize its target of new urban employment of over 11 million. Our baseline forecast of 5.4% growth in 2022 now faces more downside risk from a deeper than expected property downturn, more subdued consumption recovery, and/or softer external demand due to geopolitical risk.