Blog: After Years of Sharp Decline, Will China’s Birth Rate Rebound?

The number of annual births in China has been in an unbroken slide since 2016, halving in the six years to 2022, and the fall looks set to continue this year. But just how sharp will the decline be and is there hope for a rebound?

Annual births fell from 18.83 million in 2016 to 17.65 million, 15.23 million, 14.65 million, 12.02 million in 2020, 10.62 million, and 9.56 million last year. Therefore, the rate of decline each year from 2017 to 2022 was 6.27%, 13.71%, 3.81%, 17.95%, 11.65%, and 9.98%, respectively.

The figures for 2016 and 2017 were revised following the Seventh National Population Census in 2021.

During the period, 2020 witnessed the largest decrease in births at 2.63 million fewer than the previous year, equal to a 17.95% drop year-on-year. Second most severe was in 2018, which saw a 13.71% decline, or 2.42 million fewer births.

As for 2023, Qiao Jie, the director of Peking University’s Health Science Center, predicted that the births will range between 7 million to over 8 million, according to an Aug. 8 report by Yicai.

I think it’s very likely that the number of births this year could drop below 9 million but falling below 8 million appears less probable. Hypothetically, if the number of newborns were to dip to 7.5 million this year, that would constitute a drop of 21.55%, which is even larger than the decline seen in 2020.

Several factors are contributing to the continued decline. First, the number of women of childbearing age is decreasing. Based on the seventh national census data, the number of women of childbearing age is expected to decline by about 4 million annually from 2020 to 2025.

Second, fewer people are getting married. The number and rate of couples registering to get married in China fell consecutively for the nine years through 2022. Only 6.83 million couples registered for marriage in 2022, the lowest level since 1980.

Lastly, there is an increasing lack of desire to have children. Due to high child-rearing costs and high work pressures, the younger generation’s aspiration to have children has significantly diminished. A survey by the National Health Commission showed that childbearing-age women in 2021 wanted to have an average of 1.64 children, compared to 1.73 in 2019 and 1.76 two years before that. Specifically, women born in the 1990s and 2000s planned to have only 1.54 and 1.48 children on average, respectively.

Therefore, there’s little doubt that 2023 will mark another year of decline in births, the real question is by how much?

But could we see a rebound in births next year 2024? Covid-19 was a significant factor in the decline in birth rates from 2020 to 2023, with some families postponing their plans to have children due to the pandemic. We are now well into the post-pandemic era, so maybe births will see a minor rebound next year.

However, without the introduction of more aggressive policy support from the government, the increase in births is likely to be limited. Additionally, if the fundamental factors such as the decline in women of childbearing age, drop in marriages, and low desire to have kids remain unchanged, a declining trend for births is likely to continue in the long term.

He Yafu is a demographer and author.

The views and opinions expressed in this opinion section are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the editorial positions of Caixin Media.

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Kelly Wang contributed to the translation of the article.

Contact reporter Kelly Wang (jingzhewang@caixin.com) and editor Jonathan Breen (jonathanbreen@caixin.com)

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