China Manufacturing Activity Picks Up as Stimulus Kicks In, Caixin PMI Shows

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Activity in China’s manufacturing sector rebounded in October after a dip into contraction the previous month, with output and new orders expanding at the fastest pace since June, a Caixin-sponsored survey published Friday showed.

The Caixin China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which gives an independent snapshot of the country’s vast manufacturing sector, came in at 50.3, compared with 49.3 in September. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion in activity, while a number below that signals a contraction.

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China's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in October, indicating expansion after a previous contraction, aligning with an official PMI increase to 50.1.
Improved market demand and business optimism contributed to the growth, though export orders and labor market conditions remain weak.
Recent government measures aim to boost economic support, with a focus on maintaining growth targets and addressing the housing market through potential fiscal packages.

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Who’s Who

Caixin: Caixin provides independent snapshots of China’s economy through surveys such as the Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI. In October, their PMI indicated a rebound in manufacturing activity, rising to 50.3, signaling expansion. Caixin's data suggested stabilized market demand and improved optimism, though the labor market remains under pressure. The rebound aligns with a broader effort by policymakers to support economic growth through various fiscal measures.

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What Happened When

May 2023：: Employment subindex fell to its lowest level since this month.

September 2024：: Caixin China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was at 49.3, indicating contraction.

After summer 2024：: October 2024 saw the first rise in both input costs and output prices since the summer.

Past six weeks before October 2024：: Policymakers made a concerted effort to boost economic support, with measures including cuts to banks' reserve requirement ratio and mortgage interest rates.

October 2024：: The Caixin China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rebounded to 50.3, indicating expansion.

October 2024：: The official manufacturing PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics also showed an expansion, rising to 50.1 from 49.8 the previous month.

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