Larger Stimulus Package Would Do More to Stabilize China’s Growth, Experts Say
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On Monday, the Caixin Roundtable G20 Special Session — “Brazil-China Cooperation for a Shared Future” — took place in Rio de Janeiro. Photo: Caixin
While Beijing’s recent fiscal stimulus measures are encouraging, even greater support is needed to stabilize economic growth, Chinese financial experts said on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro this week.
“I think the size of the stimulus, as much as 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) sounds amazing, [but] it is not sufficient to stabilize the housing sector or overall economic growth,” Zhu Ning, finance professor at the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance at Shanghai Jiao Tong University, said at a Caixin roundtable in the Brazilian city on Monday.
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- Chinese experts at the G20 summit urged for larger fiscal stimulus than the recent 10 trillion yuan, suggesting 15 trillion yuan to effectively boost economic growth.
- Concerns were raised about potential trade tensions between China and the U.S. affecting Brazilian soybean exports and the need for Brazil to strengthen ties with China.
- Brazil is advised to focus on green energy collaboration with China, with upcoming international events and potential political changes in Brazil affecting bilateral relations.
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Who’s Who
- Taikang Funds Management Co., Ltd.
- Taikang Funds Management Co., Ltd. is represented by Song Shanshan, a macroeconomy and market strategy analyst, in the article. Shanshan believes China will meet its “around 5%” GDP growth target for the year, despite the economic challenges discussed during the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro.
- Institute of International Finance
- The Institute of International Finance (IIF) is represented by Gene Ma in the article. Ma is the head of China research at the IIF and advocates for a stimulus package in China similar to the one from the late 2000s. He views the current fiscal policies as focusing on risk mitigation rather than robust stimulus spending, highlighting the need for substantial economic measures to address deflation and boost imports amid rising U.S.-China trade tensions.
- Brazil-China Entrepreneurship Council
- The Brazil-China Entrepreneurship Council is led by Claudia Trevisan, who is a journalist and the executive director. The council focuses on fostering Brazil-China cooperation, especially in light of potential political changes that might influence bilateral relations. Trevisan warns that the return of right-wing populism, potentially sparked by Trump’s reelection, could hinder cooperation between the two countries, particularly with Brazil's presidential elections upcoming in October 2026.
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What Happened When
- 2008：
- The Chinese government rolled out a 4-trillion-yuan stimulus program after the global financial crisis.
- 2018：
- The U.S.-China trade war began, leading Brazil to replace a portion of U.S. soybean exports to China.
- By 2022：
- Over 20% of all Chinese agricultural imports came from Brazil, with up to 90% of China's soybean imports from Brazil, according to a CEBRI report.
- 2024：
- Several experts, including Zhu Ning and Song Shanshan, expressed belief that China will meet its 'around 5%' GDP growth target.
- Monday, 2024：
- Zhu Ning discussed the size of the needed stimulus at a Caixin roundtable in Rio de Janeiro.
- This week, 2024：
- Chinese financial experts commented on Beijing's fiscal stimulus measures on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro.
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