Year in Review: Trump’s Return Brings a New Era of Trade Conflict and Global Disruption

In 2024, over 70 countries and regions, accounting for more than half of the world's population, held major elections amidst challenges like inflation, the cost-of-living crisis, and immigration. These issues significantly impacted the political landscape, resulting in the shift of power dynamics in various nations and a resurgence of right-wing populism, particularly in Europe and the United States. Many long-standing ruling parties lost power as these socio-economic concerns dominated [para. 1].

In major emerging economies such as Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Indonesia, elections brought significant political changes. Joko Widodo, a former Indonesian president, endorsed Prabowo Subianto, who won the presidency after Widodo's decade-long rule. Conversely, Bangladesh and Pakistan faced political turbulence. In Bangladesh, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina won a fifth term but had to step down due to protests against a civil servant quota system. This led to unresolved political instability [para. 2][para. 3].

In Russia, President Vladimir Putin secured another six-year term following constitutional amendments that permit him to run again in 2030, potentially extending his leadership till 2036. This victory was shadowed by a terrorist attack in Moscow, adding psychological strain to a society already affected by Russia's military actions in Ukraine [para. 3].

India and South Africa experienced setbacks for their long-dominant parties. In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi won a third term, although his party failed to achieve a majority due to concerns about economic disparities. Similarly, South Africa's African National Congress lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since 1994, compelling it to form a coalition government [para. 4].

In Europe, a wave of discontent reshaped the political order, boosting right-wing populism. The UK Labour Party reclaimed power after 14 years, emphasizing the need for change in light of Brexit, the pandemic, and economic issues. Although traditional parties maintained a foothold in the European Parliament, far-right movements gained momentum, primarily focusing on immigration and climate change debates. This surge prompted French President Emmanuel Macron to call an early parliamentary election, which resulted in political crisis and division as dissatisfaction grew over several national issues [para. 5][para. 6][para. 7].

In the United States, the 2024 presidential election saw Donald Trump's return to power, heralding a period of global uncertainty. Trump's administration is expected to focus on an "America First" policy, affecting international alliances and cooperation. His return comes amid global tensions like the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-China competition, which may influence U.S. foreign policy beyond his term. Domestically, Trump aims to address fiscal gaps and bring manufacturing back to the U.S., but these plans face obstacles like inflation and possible retaliation from other countries [para. 8][para. 9][para. 10].

Trump's team includes advisors leaning towards limiting American engagement abroad while countering China. The U.S.-China competition, particularly in tech sectors, is likely to escalate. While Trump advocates negotiation over military conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, the feasibility of these negotiations remains uncertain. Moreover, Trump's potential withdrawal from international agreements like the Paris Climate Agreement and pressure on NATO allies reflect his broader skepticism of multilateral cooperation [para. 10][para. 11][para. 12][para. 13].

With Republicans controlling both the White House and Congress, Trump has the power to implement a more radical agenda. However, the geopolitical complexities he faces are more challenging than during his first term, making the global implications of his policies a significant concern for 2025 [para. 14][para. 15].