Interview: ‘Thucydides Trap’ Allison More Optimistic About U.S.-China Relations Under Trump

The presidency of Donald Trump may bring a period of uncertainty to U.S.-China relations, but there remains cautious optimism from some, including Graham Allison, a political scientist known for popularizing the concept of the Thucydides Trap. This theory suggests a conflict tendency exists when a rising power challenges a dominant one. [para. 1] In an interview at the 2025 World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, Allison expressed optimism about U.S.-China relations, highlighting Trump's unique campaign messages that expressed admiration and respect for China’s President Xi Jinping, contrasting the general unfavorable sentiment toward China among other candidates and the American populace. [para. 2][para. 3][para. 4]

Trump, during a virtual address to the WEF, emphasized his aim to build a "fair relationship" with China and spoke positively about President Xi, noting their “great relationship” and expressing a desire to cooperate with China, especially in efforts to resolve global issues like the Russia-Ukraine war. [para. 7][para. 8] Allison interprets Trump's remarks as indicating potential collaboration between the U.S. and China in resolving international conflicts, suggesting possibilities for joint peacekeeping actions, including addressing long-standing conflicts such as those with Iran. [para. 9]

Trump has shown interest in visiting China within his first 100 days in office, although responses from China's foreign ministry remain non-direct. Allison suggests the possibility of a new diplomacy initiative akin to the historical Shanghai Communiqué, proposing the U.S. pledge never to recognize an independent Taiwan, while encouraging the Chinese mainland to pursue peaceful reunification. He speculates that Beijing is open to long-term strategies regarding Taiwan. [para. 13][para. 14][para. 15]

Despite Trump's intentions to work with China, his administration includes "China hawks" like Marco Rubio, appointed Secretary of State, and Michael Waltz as National Security Adviser, individuals known for their critical views on China and who have faced sanctions from Beijing. [para. 20] However, figures like Elon Musk, who shares Trump’s positive outlook on business relations with China, also influence these dynamics. Musk believes in the potential for significant business deals and cooperation between the U.S. and China. [para. 21]

Ultimately, Allison believes that Trump, due to his decision-making style, will rely heavily on his own judgment, without extensive internal consultations, to steer the administration's policies. This could shape much of the future bilateral relationship and the global geopolitical landscape. [para. 22]