Weekend Long Read: How to Stop Northeast China’s Population From Shrinking

With the publication of Heilongjiang’s 2024 Statistical Communique on National Economic and Social Development, all three provinces in Northeast China—Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning—have now reported population declines for the previous year, with Heilongjiang being the last to release this data. By the end of 2024, Heilongjiang’s resident population dropped to 30.29 million, shrinking by 330,000 from the previous year. Among the 30 regions in China releasing such data for 2024, Heilongjiang’s population loss was second only to Shandong, which lost 428,000 residents. Liaoning and Jilin also saw significant decreases of 270,000 and 221,000 people, respectively. Collectively, Northeast China’s population shrank by 817,000 people in one year, extending a decade-long trend of depopulation, during which more than 11 million residents have left or passed away in the region [para. 1][para. 2][para. 3][para. 4].

Initially, the primary cause of the population loss in the Northeast was net outflow, especially of educated young people seeking regions with better health care and education. However, recent years have seen a shift: natural population decline—where deaths outnumber births—has become the main driver, as net outflow has slowed. Huang Wenzheng, executive director at YuWa Population Research, clarified that even without out-migration, the population would still diminish at nearly the same rate. In 2023, Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang recorded the lowest natural population growth rates in China at -5.63‰, -5.41‰, and -6.92‰, respectively, largely due to persistently low fertility rates and an aging demographic. Specifically, the birth rates in 2023 ranged from just 2.92‰ to 4.06‰ in these provinces, significantly below the national birth rate of 6.39‰. For 2024, incremental increases in birth rates were noted in Liaoning and Jilin, whereas Heilongjiang did not release detailed data [para. 5][para. 6][para. 7][para. 8][para. 9][para. 10].

While population decline persisted in much of central and western China, strong provincial capitals have managed to buck the trend by attracting people from elsewhere. For example, Shenyang and Dalian in the Northeast both achieved modest population growth in 2024. Shenyang’s population grew by 39,000 to 9.243 million, partly by welcoming 170,700 university graduates, a 6.26% jump, and creating 146,000 urban jobs. Dalian’s population rose by 5,000 to 7.544 million. In contrast, Changchun lost 16,800 residents, and Harbin’s 2023 population figure showed a decline to 9.7763 million [para. 13][para. 14][para. 15][para. 16][para. 17][para. 18].

Policy experts like Lu Ming advocate for a “strong provincial capital” strategy, suggesting that regions experiencing population loss should focus on retaining people in major city centers, as small and remote cities are likely to see more residents relocate to larger hubs [para. 19][para. 20].

Despite various initiatives to boost fertility, provide elderly care, and improve employment, the measures have not been sufficient to reverse or halt demographic declines. Low birth rates have led to drastically reduced school enrollments—Heilongjiang shuttered over 1,900 elementary schools (nearly 60% of the total) between 2013 and 2022, while Jilin and Liaoning each lost about half. The region is now deeply aged, with 16% of China’s 65-and-older population in 2020 residing in the Northeast. This ongoing aging places heavy burdens on local healthcare and pension systems; Heilongjiang’s basic pension insurance had a 10.2 billion yuan deficit in 2023. Experts emphasize the need for higher-quality living standards and public services to attract and retain talent, which is essential for alleviating labor market imbalances and navigating demographic constraints on economic growth [para. 21][para. 22][para. 23][para. 24][para. 25][para. 26][para. 27][para. 28][para. 29].