Weekend Long Read: Will China Fulfill Its Key Climate Pledge?

China is currently significantly off track in meeting its 2030 commitment to reduce the carbon intensity of its economy, following a period of notably slow progress from 2020 to 2023. This deviation from its trajectory has raised concerns about the nation’s ability to fulfill its pledges under the Paris Agreement, especially as the carbon-intensity target for the next five-year plan (2026-2030) will serve as a key indicator of China’s climate commitment [para. 1][para. 2][para. 3]. Since 2009, carbon intensity has formed the core of China’s climate strategies, with the goal to reduce carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by over 65% from 2005 levels by 2030. However, Climate Action Tracker rates China’s targets as “insufficient,” warning that missing the 2030 target would likely result in a higher emissions peak, making global climate goals more difficult to achieve [para. 3][para. 4][para. 5].

Before the Covid-19 pandemic, China exceeded its targets, cutting carbon intensity by 48.4% from 2005 to 2020, surpassing its 2020 commitment of 40-45% [para. 6]. At the time, it appeared that achieving further reductions would be straightforward. However, progress slowed sharply after 2020: carbon intensity reductions were only 0.8% in 2020, followed by 3.8%, 0.8%, 0%, and 3.4% from 2021 to 2024, averaging just 2% per year. The total reduction from 2020 to 2024 reached only 7.9%, far below the five-year plan’s target of 18% by 2025 [para. 8][para. 9].

The slowdown was caused by both weaker economic growth and, more notably, a rebound in carbon emissions, which increased at 2.4% annually from 2020 to 2024, compared to being stable in 2015-2019. Stimulus policies during Covid-19 prioritized energy-intensive manufacturing sectors, which hindered the previous shift toward a less energy-intensive, more service-oriented economy [para. 10][para. 11][para. 12]. Meanwhile, most other major economies stimulated household spending, indirectly driving up demand for carbon-intensive Chinese exports [para. 12]. The weakening or dismantling of energy-consumption control policies also contributed to this setback [para. 13].

As of 2024, with only one year left in the current five-year plan, it appears impossible for China to meet its 2025 carbon-intensity reduction targets. If current trends continue, China would achieve just about a 54% reduction by 2025 (relative to 2005), leaving a steep 24.5% reduction needed from 2025 to 2030 to hit the 65% target [para. 16][para. 17][para. 18][para. 19]. However, possible declines in absolute emissions in 2025 could slightly ease this pressure [para. 19].

Achieving the 2030 carbon-intensity goal will likely require annual reductions of about 5% from 2024 to 2030, a rate China has historically achieved during past periods of robust clean energy expansion [para. 21]. To meet this, China must sustain large clean-energy additions, slow energy-consumption growth, and improve energy efficiency. Current government policies, however, still allow for rising absolute emissions, and the shift toward an absolute emissions target alongside intensity targets risks sidelining the latter [para. 23][para. 24][para. 25][para. 26].

Ultimately, for China to honor its Paris commitments, it must significantly ramp up clean-energy deployment, curb energy consumption, support power grid reforms, and restrain coal expansion. Only through such efforts—and by setting more ambitious targets in its upcoming five-year plan—can China get back on course to deliver international climate pledges by 2030 [para. 29][para. 32][para. 33][para. 38].