BUSINESS

China-U.S. Air Cargo Plummets After End of Duty-Free Loophole

Published: May. 12, 2025 2:36 p.m. GMT+8

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The number of all-cargo flights between China and the U.S. dropped from a daily average of around 66 in April to 28 by May 7. Photo: AI generated

Air cargo between China and the U.S. has plunged since Washington scrapped duty-free treatment for low-value parcels from China, as freighter flights were canceled and shipping rates collapsed.

“Most U.S.-bound cargo flights have stopped, and rates have dropped to around 20 yuan ($2.77) per kilogram,” an executive from Zhejiang Provincial Airport Group Co. Ltd. told Caixin on May 9. Only three all-cargo flights to the U.S. operated between May 1 and May 8, largely filled with remaining cross-border e-commerce shipments. Freight rates usually hover around 35 yuan per kilogram.

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U.S. revocation of the duty-free “de minimis” exemption led to a steep fall in China-U.S. air cargo: all-cargo flights dropped from 66 to 28 per day, rates fell from 35 to 20 yuan/kg, and cross-border e-commerce parcel volumes may shrink by 90%.
Similar declines occurred on China-Japan (65→39/day) and China-South Korea (59→37/day) routes.
Chinese airlines face revenue loss; companies are exploring markets in Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East.

AI generated, for reference only

Who’s Who

Zhejiang Provincial Airport Group Co. Ltd.: According to the article, Zhejiang Provincial Airport Group Co. Ltd. is a company involved in air cargo operations. An executive from the company reported that most U.S.-bound cargo flights have stopped and that air freight rates to the U.S. dropped to around 20 yuan per kilogram after recent changes in U.S. customs policy affecting Chinese parcels.

VariFlight: According to the article, VariFlight is a data provider that tracks air cargo flights. Their data shows a significant decline in the number of all-cargo flights between China and the U.S., as well as between China and traditional transshipment hubs like Japan and South Korea, following new U.S. customs regulations. Analyst Luo Chengtao from VariFlight also comments on the likely impact of the cargo downturn on Chinese airlines.

Cirrus Global Advisors: According to the article, Cirrus Global Advisors is an e-commerce and logistics consultancy. They project that, under the new 145% U.S. duty regime on parcels from China, air cargo parcel volumes could shrink by around 90%.

Guangdong Goldjet International Logistics Co. Ltd.: Guangdong Goldjet International Logistics Co. Ltd. is a logistics company based in China. Its general manager, Gao Jie, stated that the firm is optimistic about developing markets in Southeast Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East, and Belt and Road regions, aiming for these markets to potentially rival or surpass the U.S. market in importance amidst falling demand from the United States.

AI generated, for reference only