Commentary: Signs of Tariff Strain Appear in China’s Slower April Growth
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China’s economic growth slowed in April on a year-on-year basis, but industrial output and exports exceeded expectations. What does this mixed picture suggest, and what should we anticipate?
Economic momentum softened across most key sectors. Retail sales grew 5.1% year-on-year — slower than in March — though sales of home appliances and communication equipment held firm, helped by ongoing trade-in subsidy programs.
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- China’s economic growth slowed in April, with retail sales up 5.1% year-on-year and industrial output rising 6.1%, while the property sector remained weak.
- U.S.-China trade tensions eased, but U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods will largely remain at 30%; 2025 GDP growth forecast was raised to 4%.
- Consumer prices are expected to remain negative (CPI -0.3% for 2025), and additional stimulus is anticipated to be modest.
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Who’s Who
- UBS Investment Bank
- UBS Investment Bank is the investment banking division of UBS Group AG, a leading global financial services firm headquartered in Switzerland. It offers services such as advisory, capital markets, financing, and research to corporate, institutional, and government clients worldwide. In the article, Wang Tao is identified as the head of Asia economics research at UBS Investment Bank, providing economic analysis and forecasts related to China and the broader Asian region.
- UBS Group
- UBS Group is a global financial services firm headquartered in Switzerland. It offers wealth management, investment banking, asset management, and retail banking services worldwide. Wang Tao, mentioned in the article, is the head of Asia economics research at UBS Investment Bank. UBS provides economic analysis and forecasts, such as the revised outlook for China’s GDP growth discussed in the article.
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