China Loses Its Appetite for U.S. Goods Despite Tariff Truce

The recent easing of U.S.-China trade tensions, marked by a mutual reduction in tariffs, has yet to produce a significant recovery in Chinese demand for American goods, with the rebound in imports remaining modest. Despite a tangible improvement in political relations, entrenched complexities within the market and supply chain structures continue to hinder a return to the previous trading dynamics between the two superpowers[para. 1][para. 2][para. 5].

The trade detente was formalized after negotiations in Geneva, culminating in a 90-day truce in May 2024. This agreement saw the U.S. lower its steepest tariff rate on Chinese imports from 145% to 30% (a 10% base rate plus a 20% fentanyl-related levy), while China dropped its tariffs on American goods from 125% to 10% and paused several non-tariff barriers. Although Chinese exporters quickly adapted to these new conditions, American products have been slower to regain footing in the Chinese market, reflecting the persisting wariness and complexity of realigning supply chains[para. 3][para. 4][para. 5].

Nevertheless, trade links between the two countries remain deeply rooted. China sustains its status as the largest foreign buyer of U.S. soybeans and cotton, the second-largest for integrated circuits and coal, and the third-largest for medical devices, petroleum gas, and passenger vehicles. United Nations data for 2024 indicates that China purchased 51.7% of U.S. soybean exports, 29.7% of cotton, and significant portions of other goods[para. 6][para. 7]. Yet, since many tariffs remain, American products often continue to lack competitiveness in China. Consequently, Chinese buyers are adopting a cautious approach, with some diversifying away from U.S. suppliers altogether[para. 8].

In the agricultural sector, recovery has been particularly sluggish. Earlier retaliatory tariffs of 10-15% imposed by China on U.S. farm goods, including vital exports like soybeans and cotton, have not been fully lifted. Some tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods remain above 20%, keeping American farm exports at a price disadvantage[para. 10][para. 11]. Industry sources confirm that, although the easing of tariffs may benefit future negotiations, near-term recovery is unlikely due to ongoing uncertainty. Chinese purchasers have increasingly turned to suppliers in the Southern Hemisphere and Black Sea regions; over 4 million metric tons of Brazilian soybeans were bought in early April, while imports of U.S. soybeans, sorghum, corn, and wheat saw steep declines. A temporary spike in U.S. soybean imports in March 2024 (up 11.8% year-over-year to 2.4 million tons) was attributed to emergency stockpiling amid concerns over possible future tariffs, rather than renewed confidence[para. 13][para. 14][para. 15].

Energy trade faces similar obstacles. While the U.S. is the world’s largest LNG exporter and China its biggest buyer, only 5.43% of China’s LNG imports in 2024 originated from the U.S., totaling $2.4 billion. A 25% retaliatory tariff nearly halted this trade, and ongoing uncertainty leaves Chinese buyers wary of sourcing U.S. LNG in the foreseeable future. U.S. crude oil shipments have also dwindled, falling over 60% year-on-year in early 2024, largely due to a 20% tariff[para. 18][para. 21]. Meanwhile, U.S. liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), not subject to new tariffs, remains a stable Chinese import, making up over half of China’s 2024 LPG purchases[para. 23]. Coal imports, a small share of China’s needs, are unlikely to see growth regardless of the tariffs due to weak global demand and plentiful domestic reserves[para. 24].

Chinese officials emphasize that the country’s high energy self-sufficiency and broad sourcing strategies mitigate any potential negative impact from reduced U.S. imports. Still, experts warn that risks persist, including the threat of new tariffs and unresolved regulatory frictions[para. 25][para. 26].