Cover Story: Why Modi Won’t Play Cowboys and Indians With Trump, Opting Instead for Strategic Autonomy
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When Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, posed for a photo with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin on Sept. 1, the gesture spoke louder than any speech.
The image — Modi and Putin, shoulder to shoulder — reverberated across global media far beyond its ceremonial significance. It came at a moment when India’s relationship with its longtime partner, the United States, was visibly fraying.
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What Happened When
- June 2019：
- Trump revoked India's preferential trade status under the U.S. Generalized System of Preferences, ending tariff-free access for $5.6 billion worth of Indian goods. India retaliated with tariffs on 28 American products.
- September 2019：
- Trump and Modi held a public rally at Houston’s NRG Stadium, marking a high point in U.S.-India relations during Trump's first term.
- 2020：
- The U.S. and India upgraded ties to a 'Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership.'
- Before 2022：
- Russian oil made up less than 2% of India’s oil imports.
- After 2022：
- Following the Ukraine war and price caps, India's imports of Russian oil increased substantially.
- 2023：
- The U.S. and India launched the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology. By this time, Apple began moving iPhone production to India.
- By 2024：
- India was importing 1.75 million barrels of Russian oil per day, more than 35% of its total imports.
- 2024：
- U.S.-India trade totaled $128.8 billion with a $45.8 billion deficit.
- July 2024：
- Modi paid a high-profile visit to Moscow and was photographed embracing Putin.
- October 2024：
- Xi Jinping and Modi met on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, resulting in positive statements and a pledge to deepen cooperation.
- April 2, 2025：
- The U.S. imposed 26% tariffs on Indian goods.
- April 2025：
- China’s Foreign Ministry announced the resumption of Indian pilgrimages to Xizang’s Mount Kailash.
- By June 2025：
- U.S. and India were expressing optimism for a 'very major' trade agreement.
- Late June 2025：
- Trump abruptly imposed another 25% tariff, and trade talks collapsed.
- July 2025：
- U.S.-India trade talks collapsed. Subrahmanyam Jaishankar visited Tianjin for the SCO foreign ministers’ meeting. U.S.-India trade deficit for the year stood at $40 billion.
- August 6, 2025：
- The U.S. formalized tariffs on Indian goods, now totaling 50%.
- August 2025：
- Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited New Delhi, talks held with Jaishankar and Modi. India's ambassador to Russia stated that India would continue buying oil from 'the best available suppliers.'
- August 22, 2025：
- Beijing’s ambassador to India denounced U.S. tariffs and pledged to stand with India.
- Late August 2025：
- Before the SCO summit, Modi made a two-day surprise visit to Japan, and the Kremlin announced that Putin would visit India in December 2025.
- August 31, 2025：
- Xi and Modi met again in Tianjin, China, ahead of the SCO summit.
- September 1, 2025：
- Modi attended the SCO summit in Tianjin, posed for a photo with Putin, and redefined SCO as 'Security, Connectivity, Opportunity.'
- September 5, 2025：
- Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman reiterated that India would purchase oil 'from whoever serves our interests best.'
- September 8, 2025：
- Israel’s Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich was welcomed in New Delhi to sign a bilateral investment treaty.
- September 9, 2025：
- Trump announced the resumption of U.S.-India trade talks and called Modi 'a great friend.'
AI generated, for reference only
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