In Depth: Lean Times Ahead for Producers of Weight-Loss Drugs

A new class of weight loss drugs, known as GLP-1 receptor agonists, has made a significant global impact, primarily benefiting those who can afford these innovative therapies. GLP-1 agonists imitate a gut hormone to enhance insulin release, slow digestion, and reduce hunger signals, making them effective for both weight management and diabetes treatment. Since 2023, two companies have emerged as global leaders in this industry: Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly[para. 1][para. 2].

Novo Nordisk generated first-half revenue of 112.76 billion Danish kroner ($16.35 billion) from its semaglutide products, including weight-loss injections, diabetes injections, and oral tablets, with weight-loss injection sales growing 78%—the fastest of the three. Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide closely follows, achieving combined first-half sales of $14.73 billion for its diabetes and weight-loss injections. Particularly notable was its weight-loss injection revenue, which surged by 223%[para. 3][para. 4].

The lucrative opportunities have prompted other pharmaceutical giants to join the race. Roche reacquired GLP-1 assets in 2023, while Sanofi and AbbVie are investing in next-generation drugs. Industry experts note that, given the enormous market potential for obesity treatment, GLP-1 drugs could eventually be used alongside therapies for cardiovascular and kidney diseases[para. 5][para. 6].

Chinese pharmaceutical companies are also intensively developing GLP-1 drug candidates, with over 30 in the pipeline. Eccogene Inc., United Laboratories, and Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals have already struck significant licensing deals with global companies, demonstrating China's increasing influence and innovation in this sector. Notably, in 2025, United Laboratories licensed an injectable GLP-1 to Novo Nordisk for $200 million[para. 7][para. 8].

However, industry insiders caution that the rapid influx of developers into this market could lead to an eventual shakeout. Many entrants lack differentiation, and without successful licensing deals or regulatory approvals, large financial losses are possible since late-stage clinical trials can cost hundreds of millions of yuan[para. 9][para. 10][para. 11].

Recent clinical data have disappointed the market. Eli Lilly's Orforglipron, an oral GLP-1, reduced body weight by 12.4% over 72 weeks in a phase 3 trial—less effective than existing injected drugs. Viking Therapeutics’ VK2735 achieved 10.9% weight loss at 13 weeks but saw a 38% dropout rate due to adverse side effects. These results have led to caution among investors and affected the valuation of similar oral GLP-1 candidates from Chinese firms[para. 12][para. 13][para. 14][para. 15][para. 16][para. 17].

As GLP-1 patents, like semaglutide’s, approach expiration in 2026, the market will likely see an influx of generics, creating fierce competition and downward price pressures. Industry leaders emphasize that future winners will be those developing the fastest, safest, and most effective treatments, with clear product differentiation and strong late-stage clinical results[para. 30][para. 31][para. 32][para. 33][para. 34][para. 35].

Companies are also broadening the health benefits of their drugs beyond weight loss. Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy outperformed tirzepatide in reducing cardiovascular risks in overweight or obese patients. It also gained U.S. approval for additional liver and kidney indications. Likewise, Eli Lilly is expanding tirzepatide's approved uses, recently gaining approval in China for sleep apnea linked to obesity[para. 36][para. 37][para. 38][para. 39][para. 40][para. 41][para. 42]. Experts warn, however, that smaller companies may struggle without partnerships due to the market advantages held by big pharma[para. 43].

Overall, GLP-1 therapies are at a crossroads: fierce scientific and commercial competition, rapid clinical advances, and looming generic competition will shape who prevails in an increasingly crowded and high-stakes global health arena[para. 44][para. 45].