China Advances on Carbon Goals but Faces Uphill Battle on Cutting Fossil Fuels, Expert Says
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China has established a comprehensive policy framework to meet its decarbonization pledges, but reducing reliance on fossil fuels remains a major challenge as Beijing balances green goals with economic growth, an expert has warned.
If China wants to keep its average annual GDP growth rate at around 4.5% during the next five years, total energy demand will exceed 7 billion tons of standard coal equivalent, 800 million tons more than in the previous five years, said Dai Yande, former head of the National Development and Reform Commission’s (NDRC) Energy Research Institute, at a symposium Monday organized by the Energy and Environmental Service Industry Alliance.
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- China aims for non-fossil fuels to make up 25% of energy by 2030, but surging energy demand and economic growth pose challenges.
- From 2020 to 2024, coal’s share in energy mix dropped from 56.8% to 53.2%, non-fossil fuels rose to 19.8%, and energy intensity fell 11.6%.
- A comprehensive “1+N” policy framework guides decarbonization, including a national carbon market and stricter project carbon assessments.
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- 2020：
- China's share of coal in primary energy consumption was 56.8%; non-fossil fuels made up 15.9%.
- 2020：
- China’s total installed capacity of wind and solar power was 530 million kilowatts.
- December 2020：
- President Xi Jinping pledged at the Climate Ambition Summit that non-fossil fuels would account for 25% of primary energy consumption by 2030.
- October 24, 2021：
- The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the 'Working Guidance for Carbon Dioxide Peaking and Carbon Neutrality in Full and Faithful Implementation of the New Development Philosophy.'
- October 26, 2021：
- The State Council released the 'Action Plan for Carbon Peaking Before 2030.'
- Through 2021-2024：
- Energy consumption per unit of GDP (energy intensity) fell by 11.6%.
- 2024：
- China's share of coal in primary energy consumption fell to 53.2%; non-fossil fuels rose to 19.8%.
- 2024：
- EU's total greenhouse gas output in 2024 is referenced for comparison.
- As of July 2025：
- China’s total installed capacity of wind and solar power was about 1.68 billion kilowatts.
- September 1, 2025：
- NDRC’s revised Measures for Energy Conservation Review and Carbon Emission Evaluation of Fixed-Asset Investment Projects become effective.
- Monday, September 22, 2025：
- Dai Yande spoke at a symposium organized by the Energy and Environmental Service Industry Alliance.
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