In Depth: Experts Divided Over China’s 2035 Wind and Solar Target

China’s recently announced target to expand wind and solar capacity to 3,600 gigawatts (GW) by 2035 has stirred debate among experts and analysts, who are divided over whether the goal is sufficiently ambitious given China’s remarkable growth in renewables. President Xi Jinping revealed this goal—in line with a broader 2035 climate action plan—via a video address to the United Nations Climate Summit on September 24, 2024. This target would mean installing over six times the country’s 2020 capacity levels. [para. 1][para. 2]

By the end of 2024, China had about 1,400 GW of wind and solar capacity, implying the country needs to build an average of about 200 GW annually through 2035 to reach its target. In 2024 alone, China added an impressive 360 GW, a pace that, if sustained, would far surpass the 2035 goal. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) described the new target as a slowdown relative to recent trends, suggesting that the pace outlined isn’t as ambitious as present rapid growth would suggest. [para. 3][para. 4]

However, other experts like Michael Davidson, an associate professor at the University of California San Diego, view the target as reasonable and consistent with projections for what is necessary to meet global climate goals. Davidson’s research finds that a capacity between 2,910 GW and 3,800 GW by 2035 is needed to keep global warming below two degrees Celsius, as directed by the Paris Agreement. Therefore, China’s target is positioned within the upper bounds of the range required for effective climate action. [para. 5][para. 6][para. 7]

China’s broader climate plan includes not just the wind and solar target, but also aims for a 7-10% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from peak levels by 2035 and an increase in the share of non-fossil fuels to more than 30% of total energy usage. This plan has considerable significance globally because China accounts for about a third of global emissions and leads clean technology deployment. The plan’s scale is likely to influence global investment and supply chains. [para. 8][para. 9][para. 10][para. 11]

Despite these positives, critics such as CREA’s Lauri Myllyvirta argue that China could exceed its set goals, as recent clean energy expansions and electrification booms make the official targets appear conservative. For instance, China tripled its wind and solar capacity during 2020-2024, reaching 1,673 GW by June 2024, driving projections that, if the pace continues, capacity could reach 4,300 GW by 2035—well above the official plan. [para. 12][para. 13][para. 14]

China's climate commitments have evolved since its 2020 pledge to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and reach carbon neutrality by 2060. Notably, the country’s installation rates in 2023 and 2024 far exceeded expectations, but some analysts caution against using this extraordinary recent growth as a basis for long-term projections. [para. 16][para. 17][para. 18]

Past targets have often been set conservatively, only to be substantially exceeded. The current 3,600 GW target is higher than the 2030 commitment of 1,200 GW. Surging installation rates have been driven by market-based pricing and policy changes, but China now faces new hurdles such as grid integration and further renewable market reforms. [para. 19][para. 20][para. 21][para. 22][para. 23][para. 24]

At a provincial level, leading coastal regions like Guangdong and Jiangsu are likely to play outsized roles in surpassing their targets, whereas western provinces need to focus on expanding grid capacity and market mechanisms to prevent renewable wastage. China’s high-level commitment, signaled by President Xi’s announcement, is seen as crucial for the global climate agenda, especially as the U.S.—historically the largest emitter—remains disengaged from the Paris Agreement ahead of COP30. [para. 25][para. 26][para. 27][para. 28][para. 29][para. 30][para. 31][para. 32]