China’s Property Market Splinters From Stocks as Buyers Hold Out for Bargains
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The average price of new homes in 70 large and midsize cities fell 0.4% in September from the previous month, the sharpest decline this year
Government support measures in China’s largest cities have helped reignite home sales, but nationwide housing prices continue to drop as consumer confidence remains weak and sellers slash prices to close deals.
The average price of new homes in 70 large and midsize cities fell 0.4% in September from the previous month, the sharpest decline this year, according to data released Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics. The drop in the secondhand market was even more pronounced, with prices falling across all 70 tracked cities — the first time this year that has occurred. Prices of pre-owned homes dropped 0.6% month-on-month.
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- Despite government measures boosting transaction volumes in major cities, China’s nationwide home prices fell in September 2024, with new and secondhand homes down 0.4% and 0.6% respectively month-on-month.
- Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen saw strong sales rebounds but persistent price declines.
- While equities surged over 40% since September 2024, the property market lags due to weak consumer confidence; analysts expect limited short-term housing recovery without stronger policy actions.
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Who’s Who
- Guosen Securities
- According to a September 23, 2024 research note from Guosen Securities, both the housing and stock markets in China rallied in tandem between October 2024 and March 2025. Guosen analysts attribute the subsequent split in market performance to new momentum in the equities space, driven by themes like artificial intelligence. They concluded that the property market failed to generate a new growth narrative, leading to its continued decline.
- Linping Residential Big Data Research Institute
- The Linping Residential Big Data Research Institute reported that weak market demand and developers cutting prices to stimulate sales are contributing to downward pressure on housing prices.
- China Index Academy
- The China Index Academy (中指研究院) reported that during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the average daily new-home transactions increased significantly in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, while declining in Guangzhou. They also stated that "stabilizing expectations" will be crucial to halt the market's decline, anticipating faster implementation of recently announced policies in the fourth quarter.
- China Real Estate Information Corp.
- The China Real Estate Information Corp. (中国房地产信息集团) predicts that overall housing transaction volumes in October will either remain flat or see a slight decrease compared to September figures.
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What Happened When
- September 2024：
- Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index reached their low points; start of period referenced for subsequent stock market gains.
- September 23, 2024：
- Guosen Securities released a research note documenting the joint rally in housing and stock markets following policy announcements.
- September 24, 2024：
- A major policy package to stabilize the housing market was released by the People’s Bank of China, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission, following a Politburo call.
- Between October 2024 and March 2025：
- First-tier city pre-owned home price index rose 1.3%; Wind A-share Index gained 26.6%; both markets rallied in tandem after policy measures.
- April 2025：
- Alignment between the housing and stock markets fractured: first-tier city home prices began falling again, while the stock market continued to rise.
- September 2025：
- Average price of new homes in 70 large and midsize cities fell 0.4% from the previous month, the sharpest decline of 2025; prices of pre-owned homes dropped 0.6% month-on-month and fell in all 70 tracked cities.
- September 2025：
- Beijing used home sales reached 15,843 units, up 18.8% from August 2025; Shanghai used home sales rose 9.1% to 20,389 units; Shenzhen reported an 8.9% increase to 4,546 units.
- September 2025：
- First-tier city new-home prices slipped 0.3% month-on-month; Shenzhen new-home sales surged 37.2%, Shanghai nearly 30% higher.
- Early October 2025：
- National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday occurred; new-home transaction area rose year-on-year in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, but fell in Guangzhou.
- By October 20, 2025：
- Shanghai Composite Index surged 43.7% from its September 2024 low, Shenzhen Component Index jumped 62% over the same period.
- October 20, 2025：
- National Bureau of Statistics released the latest housing price data; China Index Academy published a report emphasizing the need to stabilize expectations; Linping Residential Big Data Research Institute issued a report citing continued market weakness.
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