ECONOMY

China’s Economy Expected to Slow as Exports Weaken

Published: Nov. 6, 2025 4:08 p.m. GMT+8

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Workers weld at a pressure vessel manufacturing plant in East China’s Shandong province. Photo: VCG

China’s key economic indicators likely slowed in October, with export growth expected to see a sharp decline, primarily due to a high base of comparison from last year and mounting external uncertainties.

A Caixin survey of 12 domestic and foreign institutions shows that a significant slowdown is anticipated in foreign trade. The average forecast for export growth is just 2.7% year-on-year, a sharp 5.5-percentage-point deceleration from September’s actual growth.

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China’s export growth for October is forecasted at 2.7% year-on-year, down 5.5 percentage points from September, due to a high base effect and weak external demand.
Industrial production growth is expected at 5.5%, a 1-point drop from September; retail sales growth forecast is 2.5%, also decelerating.
Fixed-asset investment may decline 0.6%–0.8% year-on-year, but policy support could lift growth to 1% according to some forecasts.

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Who’s Who

China International Capital Corp. Ltd.: China International Capital Corp. Ltd. (CICC) is a financial institution whose analysts have provided insights into China's economic indicators. They attributed an anticipated sharp decline in export growth primarily to a high base effect from the previous year. CICC analysts also forecast a 0.8% drop in fixed-asset investment for the first 10 months of the year.

Citic Securities Co. Ltd.: Citic Securities Co. Ltd. (中信证券股份有限公司) anticipates a potential positive growth of 1% in fixed-asset investment, supported by a 500 billion yuan policy-oriented financial tool. They also suggested that the slowdown in retail sales growth might be connected to the fading impact of earlier subsidies for cars and home appliances.

AI generated, for reference only