China Must Confront Property Debt as Export Engine Cools, Nomura Says

Stabilizing the crisis-hit property sector is the most critical task for China’s economy over the next one to two years as the export boom that cushioned the downturn is expected to fade, according to Nomura Holdings Inc.’s chief China economist.

Lu Ting, speaking on Monday at Nomura’s 2026 outlook conference in Hong Kong, warned that the government must decisively “clear nonperforming debt among developers rather than simply rolling it over.” He noted that the aggressive export growth of the past five years masked the severity of a domestic slump driven by a collapsing housing market, and policymakers must now face the reality of debt resolution to restore confidence.