ECONOMY

China’s Consumption, Industrial Output Expected to Improve

Published: Dec. 9, 2025 6:30 p.m. GMT+8

00:00

00:00/00:00

Listen to this article 1x

High-speed optical modules for AI data centers. Photo: VCG

China’s consumption and industrial production likely improved in November on a low comparison base and still-resilient external demand, while fixed-asset investment remained a major drag as policy support continues to take effect only gradually.

A Caixin survey of 13 domestic and international institutions shows the average forecast puts November’s value-added industrial output growth at 5% year-on-year, slightly above October’s actual reading.

You've accessed an article available only to subscribers

Subscribe today for just $.99.

VIEW OPTIONS

Unlock exclusive discounts with a Caixin group subscription — ideal for teams and organizations.

Subscribe to both Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal — for the price of one.

Share this article

Open WeChat and scan the QR code

DIGEST HUB

Digest Hub

Back

Explore the story in 30 seconds

China's industrial output likely grew 5% year-on-year in November, driven by resilient external demand; port throughput rose 3.2%.
Retail sales are expected to increase 3.2% year-on-year, with gains supported by government subsidies; auto sales slowed but appliance sales improved.
Fixed-asset investment likely declined 2.1% for January-November, with real estate investment subdued despite 500 billion yuan in policy support.

AI generated, for reference only

Who’s Who

Huachuang Securities: Huachuang Securities is an institution that provides analysis on economic data. Zhang Yu, their chief macro analyst, forecasts a 5.3% year-on-year growth in China's value-added industrial output for November, mainly driven by external demand. She noted improvement in high-frequency data, including a 3.2% increase in port throughput.

CITIC Securities: CITIC Securities provided cautious forecasts for China's November economic performance. They predicted a 4.7% year-on-year growth in value-added industrial output, citing weakened production sentiment and fewer working days. For retail sales, they anticipated a 3.5% rise due to a low comparison base and new consumer goods subsidies. They also noted that 500 billion yuan in policy-backed financial instruments could support infrastructure and manufacturing investment.

AI generated, for reference only