China’s Sputtering Export Engine Exposes Structural Economic Strains, Nomura Economist Warns

China’s economy is under mounting pressures as weakening export growth fails to offset a prolonged real estate slump and persistent weakness in consumer demand, Nomura’s chief China economist Lu Ting said during a recent investment forum.

Lu predicted that China's gross domestic product (GDP) growth could ease to around 4% in upcoming quarters, citing a broad deceleration in investment, consumption and exports. Although official data showed 5.2% year-on-year growth in the first nine months of 2025, quarterly expansion slowed to 4.8% in the third quarter.

Fixed-asset investment — accounting for roughly 40% of China’s GDP — has been contracting monthly since June, plunging 12.2% in October in what Lu described as a “historically rare” drop. Retail sales, another key barometer of consumption, slipped to 2.9% growth in October from 3.7% in July, with Lu warning the pace may slow to near 2% in coming months.