FINANCE

China’s November Lending Seen Recovering, but Soft Demand Persists

Published: Dec. 10, 2025 7:16 p.m. GMT+8

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China’s new yuan lending likely picked up in November after October’s weak reading, but expansion may remain weaker than a year earlier as soft household demand continues to weigh on stimulus efforts, a Caixin survey showed.

Thirteen institutions forecast an average of 507.7 billion yuan in new yuan loans for November, below the 580 billion yuan issued a year earlier and compared with actual new lending of 220 billion yuan in October.

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November new yuan loans are forecast to average 507.7 billion yuan, below last year’s 580 billion but up from October’s 220 billion.
New total social financing (TSF) is expected to average 2.15 trillion yuan, down from 2.33 trillion yuan last year.
Lending growth remains weak due to soft household and enterprise demand, with banks cautious amid property risks.

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Who’s Who

CITIC Securities: CITIC Securities, an institution, has an analyst named Yang Fan. Yang Fan predicts that new yuan loans for November will be around 400 billion yuan. This forecast is based on weak home sales, low mortgage lending, and modest corporate appetite.

China International Capital Corp. Ltd.: China International Capital Corp. Ltd. (CICC) analysts observe that high-frequency data do not indicate a clear recovery in real-economy credit demand. They note that banks remain cautious due to property risks and are conserving lending capacity for early 2026. CICC expects November lending to be primarily concentrated in short-term corporate loans and bill financing.

Huachuang Securities: Huachuang Securities' analyst Zhang Yu estimates new Total Social Financing (TSF) to reach 1.6 trillion yuan. This forecast indicates a year-on-year decline of 650 billion yuan, attributed to weak enterprise and household loans, and lower net financing from government bonds.

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