Global Oil Demand to Keep Rising for Another 15 Years, Chinese Report Says
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A research unit under China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) has significantly pushed back its forecast for peak global oil demand by a decade to 2040, citing stronger-than-expected consumption and a rising focus on energy security.
According to its newly released "World and China Energy Outlook 2060," the CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute (ETRI) now expects oil demand to reach a high of 4.8 billion tons in 2040 — a 5.2% increase over last year’s forecast and ten years later than previously projected.
Forecasts for global natural gas demand were similarly pushed back by five to eight years, with peak consumption expected between 2040 and 2045. The revised volume estimate rose 11% to roughly 5 trillion cubic meters.
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- CNPC’s research unit now projects global oil demand to peak in 2040 at 4.8 billion tons, a 5.2% increase over last year’s forecast and a decade later than previously expected.
- Global natural gas demand is forecast to peak between 2040 and 2045 at roughly 5 trillion cubic meters, with the volume estimate raised by 11%.
- China’s energy demand is expected to peak around 2035 at 5 billion tons of oil equivalent, with oil and gas maintaining a combined share above 25%.
- China National Petroleum Corp.
- China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) is a state-owned oil and gas company. Its research unit, the CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute, revised its forecast for peak global oil demand to 2040, a decade later than previously projected. The institute also updated its forecast for peak global natural gas demand, now expecting it between 2040 and 2045.
- S&P Global Energy
- S&P Global Energy is mentioned in the context of China's oil demand. Wang Zhuwei, their director of oil trading analysis, predicts that demand for liquid fuels in China will likely peak in 2027 and then remain at a high plateau for five to ten years.
- As of 2025：
- Fossil fuels’ share of world energy mix is 80%.
- November 2025：
- IEA releases a report revising its estimate for peak oil demand to 2050.
- 2025-2030：
- China’s oil demand is expected to level off.
- 2025-2035：
- Worldwide total energy demand is expected to rise 15%, reaching 17.6 billion tons of oil equivalent.
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