Analysis: Beijing’s Trillion-Dollar Surplus Shows Limits of U.S. Levers

U.S. Effective Tariff Rate by Trading Partner

China’s trade surplus broke the $1 trillion barrier for the first time in recorded history during the first 11 months of 2025, a milestone achieved despite a year of renewed trade hostilities with the U.S.

The surge highlights the complexities facing the Trump administration as it attempts to curb Beijing’s economic reach. Accruing a cumulative surplus of $1.08 trillion through November, China’s export machine has proven resilient against reciprocal tariffs and volatile trade negotiations that defined the year.