ECONOMY

China Prices Likely Show Signs of Stabilizing in December

Published: Jan. 8, 2026 6:12 p.m. GMT+8

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China’s consumer inflation likely picked up slightly in the final month of 2025, while factory-gate deflation eased, according to a Caixin survey, reflecting price support from food and commodity costs rather than a broad-based recovery in domestic demand.

The survey of 15 domestic and overseas institutions shows the consumer price index (CPI) is expected to rise 0.8% year on year, up 0.1 percentage point from November. Producer prices are forecast to fall 2%, narrowing by 0.2 percentage point, as prices for steel and non-ferrous metals strengthened.

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This is an AI-generated English rendering of original reporting or commentary published by Caixin Media. In the event of any discrepancies, the Chinese version shall prevail.

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China’s December 2025 CPI is expected to rise 0.8% year-on-year, mainly due to higher food and commodity costs.
Producer prices are forecast to fall 2%, with deflation easing as steel and non-ferrous metal prices strengthen.
Analysts note improvements stem from favorable base effects and selective commodity rallies, not a broad demand recovery.

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Who’s Who

China International Capital Corp. Ltd.: Analysts from China International Capital Corp. Ltd. estimated that the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth would be approximately 0.7%. They attributed this to higher vegetable prices due to a low base from the previous year, while noting continued month-on-month declines in pork prices.

Huachuang Securities Co. Ltd.: Huachuang Securities Co. Ltd.'s Chief Economist, Zhang Yu, highlighted that gold and silver jewelry significantly impact the CPI basket, accounting for about 0.6% and 0.05% respectively. She estimated that increasing precious metal prices contributed approximately 0.04 percentage points to December's month-on-month CPI increase.

Citic Securities Co. Ltd.: Citic Securities Co. Ltd. (中信证券股份有限公司) is a Chinese financial institution. Analysts from Citic Securities Co. Ltd. forecast that the producer price index (PPI) decline would narrow to approximately 1.9%. This is attributed to gains in steel and non-ferrous metals, which offset the weaknesses in coal and crude oil prices.

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