Beijing Exchange Ends 2025 on a Tear, but Froth Rattles Outlook
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The Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) closed out 2025 with a blazing rally, with its main index rising nearly 39%, trailing only the ChiNext board among the Chinese mainland’s major exchanges. Driving the surge was a wave of initial public offerings and a tailwind of government policies favoring small, innovative firms.
The upbeat performance has nonetheless stirred worries of overheating, as a growing number of stocks peaked on their debut and major shareholders moved swiftly to cash out — casting doubt on whether the exchange can sustain its momentum into 2026.
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- The Beijing Stock Exchange's main index rose nearly 39% in 2025, fueled by abundant IPOs and supportive policies for innovative small firms.
- About 73% of new listings peaked on debut day, raising concerns over market overheating, volatility, and insider sell-offs.
- Despite increased institutional interest, net profits declined 7.1% in January–September 2025 and a surge of unlockable shares in 2026 may pressure valuations.
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Who’s Who
- Kaiyuan Securities Co. Ltd.
- Kaiyuan Securities Co. Ltd. is a brokerage firm. Their analyst, Zhu Haibin, commented on the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE), noting that approximately 73% of newly listed companies reach their all-time high on their debut day. He also stated that "selling on the first day remains the most rational choice for short-term investors."
- Guotai Junan Securities
- Guotai Junan Securities cautioned that a slowdown in Initial Public Offering (IPO) activity or broader market weakness could erode the significant returns observed in 2025 on the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE). This suggests their analysis points to potential volatility and the impact of market conditions on investor gains.
- China Securities Co. Ltd.
- China Securities Co. Ltd. analyzed the financial performance of companies listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE). They reported that from January to September 2025, 280 BSE-listed companies had combined revenue of 145.1 billion yuan, up 5.9% year-on-year, but their combined net profit fell 7.1%. They also noted that smaller firms face greater operational risks, especially in turbulent markets.
- Western Securities
- Western Securities (西部证券股份有限公司) is a brokerage firm. Analyst Cao Senyuan, from Western Securities, predicts that the Beijing Stock Exchange will experience three phases in 2026: a policy-driven rally, a tech boom fueled by AI and robotics, and a period of valuation corrections.
- Founder Securities
- Founder Securities, along with other analysts, has provided investment recommendations based on their analysis of the Beijing Stock Exchange for 2026. The firm suggests investors prioritize high-dividend plays, solid-state batteries, robotics, and intelligent driving systems, particularly in the spring. They acknowledge that AI firms face earnings pressure but see potential in their technology.
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What Happened When
- Before 2026：
- The Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) was launched more than four years ago as a venue for innovative small and midsize enterprises, benefiting from government backing for 'little giants.'
- 2024：
- The average listing timeline on the BSE reached 339 days, making it the quickest route to a public debut on the Chinese mainland.
- September 2024：
- Net shareholder divestments began and accelerated through 2025.
- January 2025 - September 2025：
- 280 BSE-listed companies posted combined revenue of 145.1 billion yuan, up 5.9% from a year earlier, but combined net profit fell 7.1%.
- 2025：
- About 73% of newly listed companies hit their all-time high on debut day, and first-day turnover averaged 82.4%.
- 2025：
- The market's high volatility and focus on short-term gains over long-term valuation were evident.
- Second half of 2025：
- Major stakeholders in 85 BSE-listed firms cut their holdings.
- Late 2025：
- Regulators ramped up IPO approvals as market momentum picked up.
- November 2025：
- 23 companies were approved for public listing in the months of November and December combined, nearly half of the year's total.
- As of November 2025：
- There were 40 BSE-focused mutual funds with nearly 18 billion yuan in assets.
- December 2025：
- The Beijing Stock Exchange closed out 2025 with its main index rising nearly 39% for the year.
- Spring 2026：
- Founder Securities recommended investors focus on high-dividend plays, solid-state batteries, robotics, and intelligent driving systems.
- 2026：
- Analysts expect three phases: a policy-driven rally, a tech boom driven by AI and robotics, and valuation corrections with market divergence.
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