In Depth: Finland’s Stubb Warns World Order at a Crossroads

1. At the World Economic Forum in Davos last week, Finnish President Alexander Stubb addressed profound questions regarding the unity of the West in light of U.S. President Donald Trump reopening the debate over U.S. control of Greenland. Stubb argued this issue symbolizes a deeper transition in global politics, likening current changes in the world order to pivotal shifts after 1918, 1945, and 1989. He outlined two futures: a return to a 19th-century-style multipolar world based on transactional deals or a multilateral world anchored in international laws and institutions, the latter of which he strongly supports, though he notes adjustments are needed to give the Global South more agency if multilateralism is to survive. [para. 1][para. 2][para. 3][para. 4][para. 5]

2. Stubb’s unique background—having studied in the U.S. and played golf—has facilitated close ties with Trump, including frequent personal contact. European leaders and media have noted that Stubb has provided Trump with advice, especially on Russia, and maintains candid, if not always influential, communication channels. At Davos, Stubb described Trump as resistant to change, emphasizing the need for realism in diplomatic dealings with the U.S. [para. 6][para. 7][para. 8][para. 9]

3. During the forum, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney advocated for “value-based realism”—building flexible coalitions even with states that differ politically, and he credited Stubb with originating this concept based on the Finnish president’s academic work. Stubb clarified “value-based realism” as adhering to democracy, human rights, rule of law, and supporting international order, while acknowledging that multilateralist nations cannot solve every global issue alone and must find practical forms of cooperation. The framework, initially not intended for U.S.-Europe relations, is now necessary due to current disruptions in the international order. [para. 10][para. 11][para. 12][para. 13][para. 14][para. 15]

4. Stubb characterized the current era as a generational turning point for global power structures—akin to past postwar transitions—triggered by Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. His new book, “The Triangle of Power,” outlines a global dynamic among the West, East (notably China), and the Global South, asserting that the decisive shape of the next order rests with non-Western actors. He insists Western countries must distribute power more broadly in institutions historically designed with a Western bias if they want to safeguard liberal multilateralism. [para. 16][para. 17][para. 18][para. 19][para. 20][para. 21]

5. On the Greenland controversy, Stubb highlighted diplomatic turbulence and the challenges of managing Trump’s unpredictability. Europe was divided on handling Trump’s push for Greenland—either by quiet diplomacy or calculated escalation—but eventually found a middle ground through communication with NATO, the EU, and U.S. institutions. Stubb said that respect for sovereignty is crucial for long-term alliance health, and maintaining the Transatlantic partnership demands a pragmatic, values-driven diplomacy with multiple layers of U.S. engagement (direct contact, Trump’s circle, Congress). Stubb remains optimistic about the partnership’s resilience, despite recurring crises and growing divergences on issues like climate policy and multilateral agreements. [para. 22][para. 23][para. 24][para. 25][para. 26][para. 27][para. 28][para. 29][para. 30][para. 31][para. 32][para. 33][para. 34][para. 35][para. 36][para. 37][para. 38][para. 39][para. 40]

6. Regarding the Russia-Ukraine war, Stubb was optimistic about peace negotiations, noting progress in talks led by the U.S., Ukraine, and Europe, with a 20-point plan and guarantees for Ukraine’s security and postwar reconstruction. He rejects the narrative that Russia is winning: Ukraine retains most of its territory, Russia’s war aims have largely failed, and economic and military pressure on Russia is substantial. He said Ukraine’s pathway to EU membership should be accelerated due to strategic stakes, noting the country’s large population, resources, and military could greatly strengthen the EU. [para. 41][para. 42][para. 43][para. 44][para. 45][para. 46][para. 47][para. 48][para. 49][para. 50][para. 51][para. 52][para. 53][para. 54][para. 55][para. 56][para. 57][para. 58]

7. Stubb concluded that intense pressures from both east and west are compelling the EU toward deeper integration, greater strategic autonomy, and expanded partnerships, including new trade agreements. He believes Europe’s flexibility and predictability will become increasingly attractive as global instability rises, and remains optimistic about the continent’s future, admitting the current crises offer opportunities for constructive change. [para. 59][para. 60][para. 61][para. 62][para. 63][para. 64][para. 65][para. 66][para. 67][para. 68][para. 69][para. 70]