Analysis: U.S. Allies Flock to Beijing to Hedge Against Trump’s Policies
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As the new year settles in, the diplomatic calendar in the Chinese capital has become unusually crowded. A closer look at the guest list reveals a distinct pattern: The vast majority of visitors hail from traditional Western powers.
First came French President Emmanuel Macron, marking his fourth visit to the country. He was closely followed by Micheál Martin, the prime minister of Ireland, which is set to assume the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union in the second half of this year. Then came events that resonated even more loudly in geopolitical circles: the arrival of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney — a leader of a G-7 nation — marking the first visit by a Canadian head of government in nine years.
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- In early 2026, China hosted leaders from four G-7 nations and two UN Security Council members, signaling intensified Western diplomatic engagement.
- Driven by concerns over U.S. policy under Trump, allies like Canada and the U.K. seek to hedge economic ties but face U.S. pressure and domestic political weakness.
- Despite frequent visits, Europe’s defense dependence on the U.S. remains deep, making major shifts in alliances or strategy unlikely in the near term.
1. The beginning of the new year in Beijing has seen an unprecedented number of high-level diplomatic visits from Western leaders. This surge is not random but reveals a coordinated pattern, with an overwhelming majority of guests coming from established Western powers seeking to engage with China during a crucial period in global politics. [para. 1]
2. French President Emmanuel Macron led the diplomatic flurry, returning for his fourth official visit. His trip was soon followed by Ireland’s Prime Minister Micheál Martin, as Ireland prepares to lead the EU Council later in the year. The diplomatic activity gained further significance with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit, representing the first Canadian leader to travel to China in nearly a decade. [para. 2]
3. Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo stayed for an in-depth four-day engagement, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer ended an eight-year absence of UK leaders in China. The German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, is expected soon. This means that within just three months, China welcomed leaders from four G-7 countries and two permanent members of the UN Security Council—a rare volume of Western engagement. [para. 3][para. 4]
4. The primary motivation behind these visits isn’t solely China’s market potential but stems from a shifting global context: After one year of Donald Trump’s presidency and alterations in US foreign policy, Western allies feel compelled to hedge against geopolitical and economic risks, pushing them towards more strategic engagement with China. [para. 5]
5. Canadian Prime Minister Carney epitomized this urgency at the World Economic Forum in Davos, where he proclaimed the end of the old world order and a new era of unrestrained great-power rivalry, drawing comparisons to Churchill’s famed 'Iron Curtain' speech. He highlighted that economic integration now brings vulnerabilities rather than mutual benefits. [para. 6][para. 7][para. 8]
6. Canada has traditionally depended heavily on the US—US trade accounts for 72% of Canadian exports (down from 78%) and mutual security remains deeply intertwined, highlighted by the world’s longest undefended border and shared military assets. Nevertheless, this dependency is propelling Canada to seek diversified trade and security relationships. [para. 9][para. 10][para. 11]
7. Over the last six months, Canada has signed 12 new trade and security agreements across four continents and is negotiating free trade with India, ASEAN, Thailand, the Philippines, and Mercosur. Canada’s target is to cut the US share of its exports from 72% to under 50% by 2035, aiming to more than double non-US exports within ten years. [para. 12][para. 13]
8. However, these moves are constrained. Efforts by Carney and others to deepen economic ties with China risk US retaliation—President Trump has threatened Canada with 100% tariffs if it pursues a free-trade deal with China. To avoid conflict, both Canada and the UK have publicly clarified that their engagements focus on economic, not comprehensive, agreements. [para. 14][para. 15][para. 16]
9. The UK's and Finland’s visits were distinctly commercial; the UK’s trip pointedly excluded top security officials and was positioned as “strictly business,” while Finland’s dual governance meant its economic-oriented Prime Minister—not its President—led the visit. [para. 17][para. 18]
10. Many Western leaders currently face weakened domestic standing: Macron is nearing the end of his presidential tenure amidst political instability in France, while Starmer may be the most unpopular UK Prime Minister in history, facing record-low approval ratings and political challenges from the far right. Such leaders could face sharp domestic backlash after their high-profile trips to China. [para. 19][para. 20][para. 21][para. 22][para. 23]
11. These diplomatic overtures depend highly on current leaders’ preferences; a change in government could easily reverse present policies towards China. [para. 24]
12. The cohesion of the Western alliance, structured over eight decades in a US-centered “hub-and-spoke” system, still endures. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has cautioned that genuine European defense autonomy is unrealistic without massive increases in defense spending and independent nuclear capability—goals that are politically and economically remote amidst Europe’s financial challenges. [para. 25][para. 26][para. 27][para. 28]
13. Despite the unusual frequency of Western leaders’ visits to Beijing in early 2026, there is little evidence that the Western alliance is fracturing. Chinese hopes are centered on a pragmatic reset—favoring stability and practical cooperation over ideology, and seeking a predictable and stable phase in China-West relations. [para. 29][para. 30]
- In 2017：
- The last visit by a Canadian head of government to China prior to Mark Carney's 2026 visit.
- In 2018：
- The last visit by a British prime minister to China before Keir Starmer's 2026 visit.
- In 2024：
- Macron dissolved the National Assembly, dramatically impacting the French government.
- Over the past six months (Late 2025 – Early 2026)：
- Canada has signed 12 trade and security agreements across four continents.
- In the past three months before early 2026：
- China has hosted leaders from four G-7 nations and two permanent members of the U.N. Security Council.
- By 2026：
- One year into Donald Trump’s second presidency.
- In 2026：
- Mark Carney gave an address at the World Economic Forum in Davos illustrating the urgency for Western nations to hedge against U.S. policies.
- Recently (in 2026)：
- NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte responded to European Parliament calls for strategic autonomy, stating the EU cannot defend itself without significantly increasing defense spending.
- As of 2026：
- Keir Starmer’s Labour Party is trailing the far-right Reform UK party in polls amid low approval ratings.
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