Beijing’s Youth Workforce Shrinks as City Enforces Strict Residency Limits

1. Cities across China are easing residency rules in an effort to attract talent and combat an aging population. In contrast, Beijing maintains stringent controls over its population growth, focusing on relocating nonessential industries and strictly limiting its permanent resident population. This approach aligns with broader strategies to manage urban expansion and preserve the city’s unique status as the capital [para. 1].

2. The central government formalized these controls through the Modern Capital Metropolitan Area Spatial Collaborative Plan (2023-2035), which reinforces a mandate to keep Beijing’s permanent resident population strictly below 23 million and continue pushing out functions and industries not central to the capital’s role [para. 2].

3. According to the Beijing Statistical Yearbook 2025, the city’s population decreased to 21.83 million in 2024, a decline of 26,000 from 2023. The population target—consistently below 23 million—has remained unchanged since being introduced in 2015, which also called for a 15% reduction in residents within Beijing’s six core districts [para. 3].

4. The 23 million cap was first introduced in 2015 and codified as a “red line” in Beijing’s five-year plan by 2016. The city’s population peaked that year at 21.95 million. To curb population growth, Beijing has implemented policies controlling employment, housing, and education, successfully halting the increase in migrant residents since 2016. Between 2015 and 2024, Beijing’s net migrant population fell by 432,000, as some left and others obtained “hukou” (local household registration) through a competitive points-based system [para. 4][para. 5].

5. The registered hukou population increased by 68,000 to reach 14.38 million in 2024, driven almost entirely by migration rather than births, as the natural population dropped by 13,800 while administrative transfers added 80,400. Only about 6,000 individuals annually gain Beijing hukou via the residency points system, where the qualification threshold has risen from 90.75 points in 2018 to 117.33 in 2025. With increasing standards, the application pool dropped below 100,000 in 2025, but the success rate climbed to over 7% [para. 6][para. 7].

6. Non-local university graduates still have a pathway to Beijing residency via a quota system set by city planners and the municipal human resources bureau, aligning with annual population limits and development plans [para. 8].

7. These strict population controls have brought improvements in air quality, with over 80% “good air days” and PM2.5 levels at a record low of 27 micrograms/m³ in 2025. Traffic congestion has also improved, with peak-time traffic falling by nearly 5%. At the same time, relocating nonessential industries has helped create an integrated labor market within the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, which now boasts a stable population exceeding 100 million and high talent retention rates—outperforming major economic centers like the Yangtze River Delta and Greater Bay Area [para. 9][para. 10].

8. However, strict population caps have introduced challenges. Beijing now faces a shrinking employed population, declining young workforce inflows, and persistent labor shortages in low-end service sectors. The working resident population has dropped five years in a row, from 11.63 million in 2020 to 11.18 million in 2024. The share of the workforce is falling, and employment is increasingly concentrated in high-skilled sectors like tech and finance [para. 11][para. 12][para. 13].

9. The capital’s population is also aging rapidly. By 2024, only 11.4% of residents were between 20 and 30 years old—half of the 2015 proportion. Scholars attribute the youth decline to both falling birth rates and a diminishing ability to attract young migrants [para. 14][para. 15].

10. Experts observe that while Beijing remains a leading talent hub, its appeal is waning. Many departing professionals move to other top-tier Chinese cities. Analysts recommend developing regional talent-sharing mechanisms and improving incentives—such as better housing support and easier residency—to maintain Beijing’s competitive edge and economic vitality [para. 16].