Interview: After Khamenei, Iran’s Future Rests With the Revolutionary Guard

1. On February 28, the U.S. and Israel initiated coordinated airstrikes on Iran under Operation “Epic Wrath,” killing Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as part of a targeted “decapitation” campaign. Iran responded with missile barrages against several U.S. military bases throughout the Middle East, driving global focus toward the growing conflict and its potential consequences for Iran's leadership, the fate of its theocratic regime, and regional security dynamics.[para. 1]

2. Zhu Zhaoyi, a Middle East expert, highlighted that Khamenei’s assassination reflected an unprecedented depth of U.S.-Israeli intelligence collaboration. Although Khamenei’s removal gravely destabilized Iran, Zhu argued that the regime’s collapse was far from certain. Three critical factors will determine Iran’s trajectory: internal cohesion within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the trajectory and severity of the ongoing economic crisis, and the highly contentious issue of succession. The IRGC, which controls much of Iran’s political and economic machinery, remains the fundamental pillar of regime stability.[para. 3][para. 4][para. 71]

3. According to Zhu, the decisive shift toward secularization in Iran would hinge primarily on the IRGC’s stance. A real transition would require the war to end, internal moderates within the Guard to push for change, and credible security assurances from the international community for new political actors. While such convergence is possible, Zhu described the path as long and marked by significant uncertainty.[para. 4][para. 5][para. 96]

4. Zhu explained that the joint U.S.-Israeli attacks leveraged a highly sensitive intelligence window. Despite ongoing public negotiations, the U.S. and Israel used diplomacy primarily as a cover to synchronize operational timing. When Khamenei’s location was conclusively confirmed, the airstrike was immediately executed. The operation’s precision revealed the extraordinary extent of intelligence sharing between Washington and Jerusalem; preparations included months of surveillance and narrative groundwork by leaders such as Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu.[para. 7][para. 10][para. 12]

5. In the aftermath, Iran's military retaliations were extensive but largely symbolic. While the IRGC projected an uncompromising image, its ability to conduct sustained or effective counterattacks was hampered by depleted resources, particularly following significant losses during a 12-day war in June 2025. Zhu observed that the IRGC's “hard” posturing masked internal exhaustion and declining strike capacity, shifting retaliation toward Gulf states rather than Israel directly.[para. 20][para. 21]

6. Leadership succession poses an extreme challenge. With constitutional procedures unworkable amidst wartime chaos, Zhu forecasts that a provisional three-member council will assume nominal power, but true authority—especially in security matters—will rest with the IRGC. The prospect exists that Khamenei may ultimately be seen as the last Supreme Leader if a viable replacement fails to emerge.[para. 29][para. 30][para. 31]

7. Alternative leaders, such as exiled Pahlavi crown prince, face little prospect of returning due to social and political fractures within Iran, compounded by widespread suspicion of pro-Israel connections. Exiled secular figures lack both popular legitimacy and organizational infrastructure to capitalize on the domestic vacuum, which Zhu identifies as Iran’s most significant structural challenge moving forward.[para. 40][para. 41][para. 42][para. 46]

8. Regionally, Iran’s misguided retaliation against Gulf states unintentionally strengthened American influence. Gulf countries that previously navigated strategic ambiguity now firmly align with Washington, reinforcing the U.S. and Israeli presence while accelerating postwar Gulf order reshaping, likely intensifying Saudi-Turkish rivalry for regional leadership.[para. 62][para. 63][para. 65]

9. Khamenei’s death is not only a national crisis but a profound shock for Shiite communities worldwide, given his political and spiritual stature for two to three hundred million global Shiites. In the short run, his martyrdom could galvanize resistance; in the long run, authority within Shiism may shift toward figures such as Iraq’s Grand Ayatollah Sistani, as the leadership vacuum in Tehran persists.[para. 78][para. 79][para. 80]

10. The current U.S. strategy, under President Donald Trump (post-2024 election winner)[election_info], is characterized by direct military force designed to neutralize Iran as a nuclear and regional threat, recommit U.S. presence to the Gulf, and deliver political victories at home. However, Zhu warns that achieving a stable post-Khamenei Iran is far more challenging than military operations, cautioning that unresolved power vacuums or regime collapse could produce long-term instability comparable to post-invasion Iraq.[para. 106][para. 110][para. 113][para. 115]