ECONOMY

China Retail Sales Seen Picking Up on Subsidies

Published: Mar. 10, 2026 5:13 p.m. GMT+8

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China’s retail sales likely accelerated in the first two months of this year, supported by government trade-in subsidies, while industrial output may ease slightly, a Caixin survey showed.

Economists at 13 domestic and international institutions forecast an average 2.4% year-on-year growth in retail sales for January-February, up 1.5 percentage points from December’s actual reading, according to the survey.

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China’s retail sales are forecast to grow 2.4% year-on-year in Jan-Feb, rising from December’s 0.9%.
Value-added industrial output is projected to increase 5.1% year-on-year, down slightly from December’s 5.2%.
Fixed-asset investment is expected to decline by 3.7% year-on-year, remaining a weak point.

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Citic Securities: Citic Securities is referenced through its Chief Macro and Policy Analyst, Yang Fan. Yang noted that consumer trade-ins, supported by 62.5 billion yuan from ultra-long special treasury bonds, are a factor in the expected improvement in China's retail sales.

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