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Analysis: Why Is Gold Falling Despite War?

Published: Mar. 18, 2026  12:06 p.m.  GMT+8
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Photo: VCG
Photo: VCG

Gold is falling even as war risks escalate, an unusual move for a traditional safe-haven asset.

London spot gold briefly dropped below $5,000 an ounce Wednesday, extending its recent decline even as a deepening U.S.-Iran conflict fuels fears of global stagflation — a backdrop that has often supported the metal, though not always.

This divergence reflects a shift in market focus. While higher oil prices are raising inflation concerns, they are reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts. That, in turn, has strengthened the U.S. dollar, dampening gold’s appeal.

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  • Gold prices dropped below $5,000/oz despite escalating U.S.-Iran conflict and stagflation fears.
  • Rising oil prices and inflation expectations have led to a stronger U.S. dollar, reducing gold’s appeal.
  • Analysts note gold may rebound if the Fed signals tolerance for higher inflation or if U.S. economic data weakens.
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