ECONOMY

China Factory Prices Seen Ending 41-Month Slide as Oil Surges

Published: Apr. 9, 2026 3:43 p.m. GMT+8

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A shopper select pork at a supermarket in Shanghai on April 4. Photo: VCG

China’s factory-gate prices likely returned to growth in March, ending a 41-month run of declines as higher global oil prices lifted costs, while consumer inflation is expected to have edged lower.

A Caixin survey of 13 institutions shows the average forecast is for the producer price index (PPI) to rise 0.5% year-on-year, reversing February’s contraction.

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China's PPI expected to rise 0.5% YoY in March, ending 41-month decline, due to higher global oil prices.
CPI forecast at 1.2% YoY, down from 1.3%, as demand softens post-Lunar New Year.
Uneven pressures: oil lifts PPI 1-1.2 pp MoM; pork prices drop 10% MoM.

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Who’s Who

Huachuang Securities: Zhang Yu, chief economist at Huachuang Securities, estimates rising oil prices alone may have lifted month-on-month PPI growth by about 1 to 1.2 percentage points.

China Minsheng Bank: Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, said pork prices dropped about 10% month-on-month amid ample supply and weaker seasonal demand.

Changjiang Securities: Wu Ge, chief economist at Changjiang Securities, cautioned that the rise in prices does not signal a broad recovery in corporate profitability, as gains largely reflect supply shocks and base effects.

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