Home Prices in Top Chinese Cities Rise in March, Signaling Early Recovery
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Prices for both new and pre-owned homes in China’s largest cities saw month-on-month increases in March, signaling early signs of a property market recovery.
Data released Thursday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed that new home prices in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen rose by an average of 0.2% from February, reversing a flat trend. Pre-owned home prices in these megacities climbed by 0.4% over the same period, ending an 11-month decline with a modest rebound.
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- New and pre-owned home prices in China's top 4 cities rose 0.2% and 0.4% MoM in March, first new home gain since May 2025.
- 14/70 cities saw new home increases (up from 10), 13 for pre-owned; Jan-Mar sales fell 3% YoY, inventory dropped 12.3M sqm.
- YoY prices down 2.2% (new) and 7.4% (pre-owned); analysts note bottoming out and sustainable signs.
1. China's largest cities experienced month-on-month price increases for both new and pre-owned homes in March, indicating early recovery signs in the property market.[para. 1]
2. NBS data showed new home prices in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen averaged 0.2% rise from February, ending flat trend; pre-owned prices rose 0.4%, halting 11-month decline.[para. 2]
3. This aligned recovery in top cities suggests the real estate slump, a major economic burden, may be turning.[para. 3]
4. First MoM new home price rise in tier-1 cities since May 2025: Shanghai/Guangzhou +0.3%, Shenzhen +0.2%, Beijing flat; secondhand: Beijing +0.6%, Shanghai/Shenzhen +0.4%, Guangzhou +0.2%.[para. 4]
5. Recovery spreads: 14 of 70 NBS-tracked cities had new home MoM gains (up from 10), 13 for pre-owned (rise from prior month).[para. 5]
6. Tier-1 new home prices stabilized in 2026: from Jan declines, Feb localized gains, to Mar overall growth.[para. 6]
7. Stabilized by better transactions Jan-Mar 2026: new commercial sales volume -3% YoY to 218.7M sqm (narrowed 2.1pp), value -2.1% (narrowed 0.5pp); unsold stock down 12.3M sqm, residential 10.2M sqm.[para. 7]
8. Developer exec: tier-1 new home rise structural (high-end central projects dominate); most new launches dipped slightly MoM, new home market still cooler than secondhand.[para. 8]
9. Pre-owned rebound from volume surge: Shanghai 31k units (5-yr high), Beijing ~20k (15-mo high), Guangzhou 11k, Shenzhen ~5.1k recent peaks; listings peaking, less price-cut room.[para. 9]
10. E-house's Yan Yuejin: March ended "scissors gap" (pre-owned fell 0.2-0.3pp more than new past 6 mos); signals pre-owned bottom, aids confidence.[para. 10]
11. Unlike Sept 2024 stimulus rebound, this deeper adjustment makes buys cheaper, listings truly down for sustainable recovery.[para. 11]
12. Recovery in Xuzhou, Wuxi, Chongqing, Haikou, Jinan; top pre-owned MoM: Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Xuzhou, Nanjing; broadening beyond megacities.[para. 12]
13. Despite MoM gains, YoY tier-1: new -2.2%, pre-owned -7.4%; early stage, needs monitoring.[para. 13]
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