FINANCE

China A-Share Earnings Recovery Hinges on Financial Sector

Published: May. 6, 2026 11:50 p.m. GMT+8

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Investors monitor benchmark stock indexes at a securities brokerage in Shanghai. Photo: VCG

Earnings for Chinese mainland-listed companies rebounded modestly in 2025 entirely on the back of the financial sector, while non-financial firms recorded their third consecutive year of profit declines.

The stark divergence underscores the persistent pressures weighing on China’s broader economy, but a sharper, more broad-based earnings recovery in the first quarter of 2026 suggests corporate fundamentals may finally be finding a floor.

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2025 A-share net profit rose 2.6% to 5.4T yuan, revenue +1.2% to 73T yuan; financial sector drove growth (2.85T profit), non-financial profit fell 1.1% for third year.
Non-financial profits: -3.3% (2023), -14.2% (2024), Q4 2025 -36.6%; tech/telecom +50%, retail/real estate down.
Q1 2026: total profit +6.8%, non-financial +11.7%; recovery expected from AI, exports, policies.

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Who’s Who

China International Capital Corporation Limited: China International Capital Corp. Ltd. (CICC) reported non-financial A-share net profit shrank 1.1% in 2025, after 3.3% and 14.2% declines in 2023-2024. It attributed Q4 2025's 36.6% plunge to asset impairments, noted sector divergences (e.g., tech gains, retail losses), and highlighted Q1 2026's 11.7% non-financial profit surge tied to consumer price recovery.

China Merchants Securities Co., Ltd.: China Merchants Securities Co., Ltd. forecasts continued A-share earnings recovery, supported by strong global demand for AI computing and green energy, rising commodity prices, robust high-end manufacturing exports, and domestic policies curbing excessive competition.

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