UBS Forecasts Hong Kong Home Prices to Rise Up to 10% in 2026
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Hong Kong residential property prices could rise by up to 10% in 2026 as the city’s real estate market continues to recover, according to UBS Investment Bank.
The firm favors the city's residential sector over other property types, according to John Lam, head of China and Hong Kong property research at UBS. The optimism is largely driven by a growing number of mainland Chinese students and professionals moving to Hong Kong, attracted by the city’s higher university admission rates than those on the mainland, he said during a media briefing on Monday.
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- HK residential prices forecast to rise up to 10% in 2026; 2025 Centa Index +5%, Q1 2026 transactions +53% YoY to >18,650.
- Grade A office rents flat overall, Central premium +3-5%; Cushman sees 1-3% overall rise.
- Retail rents +5%, but pressured by cross-border shopping and mainland e-commerce.
- UBS
- UBS predicts Hong Kong residential prices up to 10% in 2026, favoring the sector due to mainland Chinese influx and returning emigrants. Expects Fed rate cut to lower HK mortgages to 3.1%. Grade A office rents flat overall, premium Central up 3-5%; retail up 5% but pressured by cross-border shopping and e-commerce.
- Cushman & Wakefield
- Cushman & Wakefield reported a 53% year-on-year surge in Hong Kong residential transactions to over 18,650 in Q1 2026. It forecasts Grade A office rents to rise 1-3% overall and 6-8% in Central in 2026.
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