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Commentary: The Tariff War Didn’t Break U.S.-China Trade Ties — It Reshaped Them

Published: May. 14, 2026  12:33 p.m.  GMT+8
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A cargo ship carrying imported soybeans at a port terminal in Lianyungang, Jiangsu province, on April 20, 2026. Photo: IC Photo
A cargo ship carrying imported soybeans at a port terminal in Lianyungang, Jiangsu province, on April 20, 2026. Photo: IC Photo

* The mutual dependency between the U.S. and China is undeniably waning. 

* Rather than isolating China, the tariff war catalyzed its diversification.

* True decoupling remains a political talking point, not an economic reality.

Nearly a decade has passed since U.S. President Donald Trump launched his first tariff war, yet the global political and economic landscape has not witnessed the total decoupling of American and Chinese markets. Instead, we are seeing a profound, structural reshaping. Amid escalating geopolitical friction, the resilience of the Chinese economy and the continuous upgrading of its manufacturing base have frustrated attempts to isolate it. The current trade dynamic between the United States and China is not a simple standoff, but a complex evolution.

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  • US-China mutual dependency waning: 2025 bilateral trade $559.7B (8.8% China's total, 7.4% US); China’s US surplus down 22.3% to $280.4B.
  • Tariffs catalyzed China’s diversification to ASEAN/EU/Africa; exports now 14.8% global total.
  • Complementary structures persist; intermediate goods trade resilient, true decoupling unrealized.
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Who’s Who
Yuekai Securities
Yuekai Securities employs Luo Zhiheng as its chief economist, who authored the article analyzing US-China trade dynamics.
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