ECONOMY

China’s July Economy Seen Uneven as Exports Offset Weak Investment

Published: Aug. 6, 2026 5:47 p.m. GMT+8

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Workers load containers at Huaian Port in Jiangsu province. Photo: VCG

China’s economic performance likely remained uneven in July, with industrial production and fixed-asset investment expected to have weakened while retail sales and exports maintained growth, a Caixin survey showed.

Economists expect value-added industrial output to grow 4.8% year-on-year in July, down 0.5 percentage points from June, according to a survey of 11 domestic and international institutions.

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Industrial output growth slowed to 4.8% in July; fixed-asset investment fell 5.9% in Jan-Jul.
Retail sales rose 1.8% on low base, trade-in subsidies, and summer travel; consumer spending improved.
Exports grew 23.1% in July, boosted by chip demand and tariff front-loading; imports rose 26.4%.

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Who’s Who

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What Happened When

First seven months of 2026 (January to July 2026)：: Fixed-asset investment contracted 5.9% (expected). Huachuang Securities forecast a 7% drop. Average new-orders reading for China's construction sector was lower than a year earlier.

June 2026：: Value-added industrial output grew 5.3% year-on-year. Fixed-asset investment performance was boosted by the usual end-of-quarter push. Exports had unusually strong performance. Retail sales growth was 1%.

July 2026：: Value-added industrial output grew 4.8% year-on-year (expected). Retail sales grew 1.8% (expected). Fixed-asset investment contracted 5.9% in the first seven months of the year (expected). Exports rose 23.1% (expected). Imports increased 26.4% (expected). Severe typhoons along China's southern coast likely disrupted production.

2026：: Delays in bond issuance, extreme weather, and the absence of new policy-financing tools affected investment. Possible tariff increases anticipated by some exporters.

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