ECONOMY

China’s July Trade Growth Tops Forecasts as AI Demand Lifts Export Prices

Published: Aug. 7, 2026 11:38 p.m. GMT+8

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A view of Yantian Port in Shenzhen, Guangdong province. Photo: VCG

China’s export growth moderated slightly in July after reaching recent highs, as soaring prices for AI-related goods and robust commodity demand continued to drive trade figures, masking sluggish underlying volume growth and weak demand for traditional consumer products.

Outbound shipments in U.S. dollar terms rose 23.9% year-on-year to $397.9 billion in July, compared to June’s 27% gain, which was the highest since October 2021, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs on Friday.

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China exports rose 23.9% in July, moderating from June's 27%, imports up 27.5%, trade surplus at $112.5 billion.
AI exports value surged 116.6% but volume only 1.9%; traditional consumer goods exports grew slowly, with toys falling 1.7%.
AI intermediate imports jumped 71.1% for integrated circuits and 193.8% for equipment; crude oil imports fell 24.3% in volume. UBS forecasts 18% export growth for 2026.

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Who’s Who

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What Happened When

October 2021：: China's total retail sales of consumer goods in the first three quarters reached 31.8 trillion yuan, up 16.4% year-on-year. In September, retail sales increased by 4.4% year-on-year, with a two-year average growth of 3.8%.

First half of 2026：: In the first half of the year, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 21.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%.

June 2026：: In June, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%.

July 2026：: In July, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%.

As of August 7, 2026：: Customs data released this Friday showed that the total value of imports and exports in the first seven months was 24.83 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. Exports alone reached 14.26 trillion yuan, up 6.7% year-on-year.

2026 full year forecast：: It is expected that the total retail sales of consumer goods for the full year of 2026 will reach about 47 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 5%.

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