China’s Growth Seen Edging Up to 4.4% as Exports Offset Weak Demand

China’s economy likely grew 4.4% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026, according to the average forecast in a Caixin survey of economists, as robust exports helped offset persistent weakness in domestic demand.

The estimate points to a slight acceleration from the second quarter. Strong overseas demand continues to support the world’s second-largest economy, while sluggish consumer spending and property investment highlight the challenges of meeting the government’s full-year growth target of 4.5% to 5%.