China’s Export Boom May Ease in 2027 as Front-Loading Fades, Economists Say

China’s exports surged 36.3% year over year in September, as exporters rushed shipments ahead of tax-rebate changes and amid uncertainty over possible European trade limits. An upturn in global manufacturing also provided support, economists said, but they expect export growth to ease by 2027.

Exports totaled $447.2 billion, with growth accelerating 11.3 percentage points from August, official data showed. September’s increase was the second-fastest monthly pace of 2026, after February, and the monthly trade surplus reached a record $133.5 billion.