FINANCE

China Policy Tool Seen Lifting October Social Financing

Published: Nov. 9, 2026 4:39 p.m. GMT+8

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China’s 800 billion yuan ($120 billion) policy-backed financing tool is expected to support October social financing, but its impact on bank lending may take longer to emerge, a Caixin survey of 11 institutions showed.

The average forecast for new yuan loans was 89.7 billion yuan, below the 220 billion yuan recorded a year earlier and September’s 1.08 trillion yuan.

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China’s 800B yuan ($120B) policy financing tool may support October social financing, but bank lending impact could lag.
Economists forecast new yuan loans at 89.7B yuan, down from 220B year earlier and Sept’s 1.08T.
New TSF forecast at 1.28T yuan, above 815B year earlier; M2 growth seen at 7.2% y/y, unchanged.

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China International Capital Corp. Ltd.: China International Capital Corp. Ltd. (CICC) stated that the impact of China's 800 billion yuan policy-backed financing tool on corporate loans could lag, based on past experience. The tool is expected to support October social financing, particularly entrusted loans, though its effect on bank lending may take longer to materialize.

AI generated, for reference only