Deciphering the Dollar's Role in the Resource Market

Global resource prices, as measured by the CRB Raw Industrials Index, have gone down from the historic high of 640 in April 2011 to the current 500. Is this downward movement temporary, or does it indicate a bear market?

From a historic perspective, the global resource market usually goes by a business cycle of 30 years: 10 years of bull market, followed by 20 years of bear trend, then bull again. The CRB index went up from around 100 in the late 1960s to 350 in the early 1980s – a 2.5 fold increase in 10 years. After that wave of bull market, it was followed by 20 years of bear market, and the index was still lingering around 200 in 2001, until another 10-year bull market that arrived at the end of that year.