Opinion: Don’t Fear China’s Policy Tightening
If you had been able to reliably pick the key global macro variable from 2012 to 2016, China’s leverage cycle would have been your choice. The incredibly tight link between the leverage cycle and China’s growth cycle, emerging markets’ (EMs’) exports, global growth and commodity prices meant that it would have accurately predicted the direction of almost all other global macro variables that mattered, with about six months’ lead time.
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