China’s hog production could bottom out by the end of this year and is expected to return to normal next year, a senior official at the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said Friday.

As of the end of September, pig herds in 12 provinces either increased or held stable compared with the previous month, indicating hog production may be entering a recovery phrase from the devastating African swine flu epidemic, Wei Baigang, director of the Agriculture Ministry’s Planning Department, said Friday at a press conference.

But overall numbers still look challenging. Data tracking 400 counties throughout the country showed that September pig herds continued to decline from August and from the same month last year and that the year-on-year drop was expanding. The monthly decline was 3% and yearly drop 41.1%.

The government has launched a series of measures to restore pork production, and the policy effect is gradually emerging, but some local policies have not been fully implemented.

As a result of the outbreak of African swine fever and subsequent plunge in pork supplies, average prices in the world’s largest consumer of the meat surged past 50 yuan ($7) per kilogram as of Thursday, up 42% from September and 78% from August.

Contact reporter Denise Jia (huijuanjia@caixin.com)