May 13, 2021 02:09 PM

China’s Population Will Peak in the Latter Half of This Decade, Expert Says

What’s new: China’s population will gradually stop growing in the next five years, reaching a “turning point” at some point in the latter half of the decade, a Chinese university think tank projected.

The Chinese population’s once high-growth momentum will disappear following the slowdown that occurred over the last 10 years, Zhai Zhenwu, director of the Center for Population Development Studies at Renmin University in Beijing, estimated in a commentary published by the official Economic Daily on Tuesday.=

“The period of the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) is expected to be the last in which the population will grow,” Zhai said in the article. “The population will reach a ‘turning point’ during the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030).”

The background: The expert’s projection came as the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the results of the country’s latest once-in-a-decade census, showing the lowest 10-year growth rate since 1953.

The size of the country’s 494 million households also shrank to 2.62 people per household in 2020, down from 3.1 people in the previous decade, according to the census.

Ning Jizhe, head of the NBS, said at a press conference Tuesday that China’s population will continue to slow before topping out in the future. However, he added that it remains unclear when the peak would happen because it depends on multiple variables, such as changes in age demographics and fertility policies.

Quick Takes are condensed versions of China-related stories for fast news you can use.

Contact reporter Lu Zhenhua ( and editor Michael Bellart (

Download our app to receive breaking news alerts and read the news on the go.

Get our weekly free Must-Read newsletter.

You've accessed an article available only to subscribers
Share this article
Open WeChat and scan the QR code
Get our CX Daily, weekly Must-Read and China Green Bulletin newsletters delivered free to your inbox, bringing you China's top headlines.

We ‘ve added you to our subscriber list.

Manage subscription
Caixin China Biz Roundup: Police Interrogate Woman for Kimono Photoshoot