Weekend Long Read: What History Tells Us About Geopolitical Shift and Its Economic Consequences

The author begins by reflecting on a pivotal moment in their educational journey: attending university post-Cultural Revolution due to the reinstatement of college entrance exams [para. 1]. This return to academia coincided with Deng Xiaoping's proclamation of the era's defining features: peace and development [para. 1]. Historically, the narrative was dominated by "war and revolution," a viewpoint heavily influenced by the Soviet model, where imperialism was seen as a precursor to war, potentially leading to socialist revolutions [para. 2]. However, in Deng's era, the focus shifted to economic growth and international relations rooted in peace [para. 3].

The author notes a potential shift in ideology with the absence of "peace and development" from the 20th National Congress report, posing questions about global choices at a historical crossroads between peace and war [para. 4]. The discussion transitions to Graham Allison's book, "Destined for War," which explores the "Thucydides Trap," a concept derived from ancient Greek history where rising powers instill fear in established ones, potentially leading to war [para. 5]. Allison's research at Harvard examines cases over five centuries where rising powers confronted established ones, with an emphasis on avoiding such conflict in the modern context of the U.S. and China [para. 6][para. 7].

The author ponders the role of ordinary citizens in these global dynamics, reflecting on their historical contributions during peace and development eras through agricultural, industrial, and technological pursuits [para. 8]. A visit to Quanzhou, a UNESCO World Heritage site, highlights its significance as an ancient port city, a hub for East-West trade during the Song and Yuan dynasties [para. 9][para. 11]. Quanzhou's prosperity, noted by travelers like Marco Polo, and its infrastructural and industrial advancements made it a pivotal commercial center [para. 12].

Acknowledging the role of ordinary individuals, the author shares stories of figures like Lin Luan and Wang Dayuan, who contributed to Quanzhou’s maritime history through their entrepreneurial and exploratory ventures [para. 15][para. 17]. These narratives underscore the impact of common people on historic economic shifts, contrasting the broader geopolitical turmoil experienced historically [para. 21].

Economic historian Angus Maddison's work is cited to discuss historic population shifts in China and global economic center transitions, such as the Age of Exploration prompted by the Ottoman Empire's trade disruption [para. 22][para. 23]. These shifts are paralleled to ancient conflicts where economic and societal changes were responses to turmoil [para. 25].

The author connects historical conflicts to contemporary geopolitical tensions, echoing concerns voiced by economist John Maynard Keynes about the economic ramifications of such tensions [para. 26]. While the devastating outcomes of conflict are clear, history also shows potential for positive economic reconstructions in new regions during and after conflict [para. 27][para. 29]. As geopolitical dynamics evolve, ordinary people and possibly new economic nodes will again be crucial in shaping future global landscapes [para. 30]. The narrative concludes with a call for ordinary people to adapt to these inevitable changes, maintaining hope in unpredictable outcomes [para. 31][para. 32].