ECONOMY

China’s Hog Prices Fall as Oversupply Drags On

Published: Oct. 14, 2025 6:06 p.m. GMT+8

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Hog prices in China have continued their downward slide after the National Day holiday, as persistent oversupply weighs on the market.

The spot price for live hogs fell to 12.33 yuan ($1.73) per kilogram Friday, down roughly 2% from the holiday period. Hog futures have also tumbled.

The sustained price weakness underscores the slow progress in tackling China’s pork glut.

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China’s live hog prices fell to 12.33 yuan/kg after the National Day holiday, down about 2%, due to persistent oversupply.
The sow herd was 40.4 million at August’s end, nearly unchanged year-on-year, with slow destocking despite government guidance.
Major producers like Muyuan are cutting herds but piglet prices have dropped 48% year-on-year, indicating prolonged low prices and continued farmer losses.

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Who’s Who

Muyuan Foods Co. Ltd.: Muyuan Foods Co. Ltd. (002714.SZ) is a major Chinese pork producer. To navigate the current market slump, caused by an oversupply of hogs, Muyuan Foods is implementing several strategies: they are reducing their sow herd, lowering the average slaughter weight of their hogs, and have stopped selling pigs for secondary fattening to stabilize the industry.

Shenwan Hongyuan Securities: Shenwan Hongyuan Securities is a company that employs analyst Sheng Han. Sheng Han provides insights on the hog market in China, specifically commenting on the pessimistic outlook for hog prices next year due to an abundant supply expected to persist through the first quarter, leading to continued losses for farmers.

AI generated, for reference only