ECONOMY

Caixin Explains: What China’s New Five-Year Plan Says About the Economy

Published: Oct. 24, 2025 4:46 p.m. GMT+8

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The Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Photo: VCG

China’s top leadership has unveiled the broad contours of its next five-year development plan, reaffirming long-term growth ambitions while emphasizing industrial upgrading, technological self-reliance and domestic demand.

The 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP), which will cover the period from 2026 to 2030, was approved at the fourth plenary session of the 20th Communist Party Central Committee held in Beijing from Monday to Thursday.

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China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) prioritizes industrial upgrading, technological self-reliance, and expanded domestic demand, aiming for moderately developed country per capita GDP by 2035.
The plan shifts focus to building a modern industrial system, with enhanced innovation and advanced manufacturing, while addressing real estate reform to stabilize growth.
Policy continuity is emphasized, but analysts expect gradual structural change; nominal GDP growth may fall below 4% in the near term.

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Morgan Stanley: Economists at Morgan Stanley anticipate that China's 15th Five-Year Plan will shift the country's industrial policy from focusing on scale to prioritizing productivity. They suggest that strategies emphasizing eco-systems and "AI-as-infrastructure" will be utilized to improve efficiency. Furthermore, Morgan Stanley economists expect China's policy framework to remain supply-centric in the short term, with a gradual shift toward consumption and social spending over time.

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