TECH

ASML Expects China Revenue Drop Following Backlog-Fueled Surge

Published: Jan. 29, 2026 4:30 p.m. GMT+8

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ASML Holding NV expects revenue from the Chinese market to decline to about 20% of total sales in 2026, down from elevated levels last year, as the chipmaking equipment giant navigates U.S. export restrictions and shifting global demand.

Revenue from the Chinese market, excluding Taiwan, accounted for 36% of ASML’s total sales in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 33% for the full year, both the highest among all its regional markets, according to earnings released Wednesday. The full-year figure exceeded the company’s own forecast of around 25% issued in July 2025.

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ASML expects China’s share of revenue to fall to ~20% in 2026 from 33% in 2025, due to U.S. export restrictions and market shifts.
ASML reported Q4 net bookings of €13.2B, with EUV systems making up €7.4B; in 2025, 14 EUV units were delivered, totaling 48 units for the year.
Despite strong demand and a 108% stock price rise, ASML plans to cut 1,700 jobs (4% of workforce), focusing reductions on management and IT.

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Who’s Who

ASML Holding NV: ASML Holding NV is the world's sole supplier of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines and a dominant producer of deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography tools, critical for chip manufacturing. The company is navigating US export restrictions, which have impacted its sales to China, though China remains a significant market. ASML's revenue from China is expected to normalize to around 20% in 2026, down from 33% in 2025 due to US export restrictions.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd.: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSMC) is a key client for ASML, exhibiting aggressive expansion plans. TSMC recently announced a record capital expenditure budget of $52 billion to $56 billion for 2026, a roughly 30% increase from the previous year. This significant investment is driven by insatiable demand for AI-related semiconductors, underpinning ASML's optimism for strong future demand for its advanced lithography systems.

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What Happened When

First quarter of 2023：: China's share of ASML revenue (excluding Taiwan) was 8%.

Third quarter of 2023：: China's share of ASML revenue (excluding Taiwan) jumped to 46%, making it ASML’s largest market.

October 2023：: Washington tightened U.S. export regulations, further restricting ASML's ability to ship its most advanced DUV models, including the NXT:1980Di.

Full year 2023：: China (excluding Taiwan) contributed 29% of ASML's total revenue.

2024：: China’s share of ASML revenue (excluding Taiwan) was 36%.

2025：: ASML shipped 48 EUV units in total.

2025：: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd.'s capital expenditure increased by about 30% over 2024.

2025：: ASML announced plans to cut 1,700 jobs (about 4% of workforce), mainly in the Netherlands and U.S.

Full year 2025：: China's share of ASML revenue (excluding Taiwan) was 33%, the highest of any region.

July 2025：: ASML forecasted China’s share of 2025 revenue would be around 25%.

Fourth quarter of 2025：: China's share of ASML revenue (excluding Taiwan) was 36%.

Fourth quarter of 2025：: ASML delivered 14 EUV units, generating nearly half its quarterly revenue.

October 2025：: A U.S. House committee cited strong ASML sales data to China, arguing equipment makers benefited despite U.S. export control efforts.